FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 04/01 - MOLDOVA (23 March)
The early outlook for the 2001 cereal harvest is satisfactory. Autumn weather favoured winter cereal planting and overwintering conditions have been more satisfactory. The area sown to winter wheat and barley has increased. Satellite imagery indicates markedly better crop development than at the corresponding time last year throughout the country. After two poor years, current indications are that the 2001 cereal harvest could return to an about average 2.4 million tonnes, given normal growing conditions until the completion of the harvests.
The 2000 grain harvest is officially reported to have reached 2.1 million tonnes, significantly higher than earlier estimates and only marginally less than the equally drought affected harvest in 1999. However, independent analysts question the official estimate, evaluating the yield of wheat at 75-50 percent of the official estimate of over 2 tonnes/hectare. Equally, the 2000 maize harvest, officially forecast at 1.091 million tonnes, could also be less.
The low quality of the 2000 wheat harvest will necessitate imports of high gluten wheat for bread making but purchasing power could keep such imports low. Following the second poor harvest in succession, the availability of feedgrains for livestock is very tight, necessitating destocking. Despite official bans on wheat exports, some 30 000 tonnes are likely to be exported in 2000/01.
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