FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 04/01 - ARMENIA* (9 April)
The outlook for the 2001 cereal harvest has improved with good rains in March, which helped replenish soil moisture and irrigation reserves. However, rains in the coming months remain crucial if a good harvest is to be achieved. Persistent drought in 2000 reduced grain production by 25 percent to 225 000 tonnes and has resulted in a shortage of seed. As a result the area sown to winter crops (mainly wheat) for harvest in 2001 has fallen by 30 percent to 70 000 hectares. It is hoped to increase the areas sown to spring cereals to 115 000 hectares. Snowfall this winter has been well below normal but rains have now started to fall. Satellite imagery indicates limited areas of better crop development than last year (in parts of Kotaik, Vaiots Dzor and southern Siunik). The food supply outlook in 2001 will depend crucially on increasing the areas sown to loweryielding spring grains, and the mobilization of seed potato to enable farmers to plant this staple crop. Animal feed and pastures were also affected by the drought. Aggregate meat and egg production has increased by nearly a fifth in 2000 while milk production declined marginally.
The cereal import requirement in 2000/01 (July/June) is estimated at 515 000 tonnes including 458 000 tonnes of wheat, and 44 000 tonnes of feedgrains to provide survival rations for livestock, a major source of protein and income for rural households. The import requirement is well above average and includes 146 000 tonnes of food aid. Cereal imports in the first 8 months of the marketing year amount to some 239 000 tonnes of cereals and include 78 000 tonnes of food aid.
Up to 68 percent of the population are destitute, poor or close to the poverty line. This finding is based on survey data including the systematic study of households undertaken with World Bank sponsorship. The survey found that 55 percent of the population is either poor or destitute. Poor households are defined as having a per capita level of consumption below the poverty line (a minimum basket of food and consumer goods), and destitute households as having a per capital level of consumption below the food line (a minimum basket of food goods), with the two lines set at 11 735 drams (US$21.5) and 7 194 drams. Some 32.14 percent of the population are in poverty and 22.91 percent are destitute; the corresponding figures for households are 30.53 percent and 19.14 percent respectively. Moreover, some households are regarded as potentially poor, as their incomes are in the range 12 000-12 500 drams, only narrowly exceeding the poverty line. As a result, up to 68 percent of the population could need some form of poverty-related social protection. The survey also revealed that the real level of unemployment is 27.3 percent, well above the official estimate of 10.0-11.5 percent. The average monthly salary is 20 157 drams, or less than twice the poverty level, and some 17 percent of the workforce earn too little to secure an income above the food line. However, wages are not the main source of monetary income: they comprise only 24.6 percent of incomes, whereas sales of agricultural production account for 32.1 percent, revenues from self- employment for 10.6 percent, and state pensions and allowances for 9.3 percent. Some 19.3 percent of incomes are transfers from relatives, including 12.8 percent from relatives living abroad (this item alone is more significant than state pensions and allowances). Only 0.1 percent of incomes are related to property (i.e., leases, interest, dividends etc), highlighting the limited impact of privatisation on earning patterns. There is a high degree of income inequality. The income level among the wealthiest 20 percent of the population is 32.2 times that of the poorest 20 percent. The survey also confirmed that at least 620 000 A rmenians (and possibly up to 1 million), out of an official population of 3.8 million, are currently abroad seeking alternative sources of income. Most of those abroad are of working age, and two- thirds are men.
Debilitating political, economic and social problems over the past decade have resulted in widespread un- and under- employment and food insecurity. Some 15 percent of rural children face chronic malnutrition even under normal circumstances. WFP plans to provide targeted emergency food assistance to an estimated 297 000 subsistence farmers and other vulnerable households with 22 480 tonnes of iron- fortified wheat, vegetable oil and pulses from 1 November 2000 until 1 July 2001. The proposed Emergency Operation (EMOP) will be fully integrated with the ongoing Protracted Relief and Rehabilitation Operation (PRRO), also effective until June 2001, which targets another 170 000 beneficiaries. The combined outstanding tonnage of the planned EMOP and the ongoing PRRO amounts to more than 28 000 tonnes up to mid- 2001.
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