Harvesting of second season cereal crops has finished and land is being prepared for the first season crop of the 2001 agricultural campaign to be planted from April. Harvesting of the most important beans season crops has started in the important Huetar region in the North and total output for year 2001 is forecast at about 15 000 tonnes. Paddy harvest has finished with an estimated bumper crop of about 320 000 tonnes.
Wheat imports in marketing year 2000/01 (Jul/Jun) are estimated to decrease to slightly below 220 000 tonnes. In the same period, white maize imports (accounting for less than 10 percent of all maize imports) are expected to increase by 50 percent. Rice imports in marketing year 2000 (Jan-Dec) decreased to some 42 000 tonnes, and are forecast to decrease even further in the current marketing year.
Cuba's recent drought significantly affected sugar cane and coffee plantations. Sugar cane output is expected to fall below 3.78 million tonnes. Harvesting of the important export earning coffee crop finished in February in the important producing provinces of Granma, Guantanamo, Santiago and Holguin with an estimated 20 to 30 per cent output decline. Although March and April are the last months of the dry season, a close monitoring of water stress will be required throughout year 2001 due to the accumulated water deficit. The current lack of rains is keeping the harvest of second season paddy crop on schedule (which started in March), but it is not favouring the coffee crops which are already beginning to flower.
Cuba's rice imports for marketing year 2000/01 (Jan/Dec) are forecast to increase to about 400 000 tonnes, virtually unchanged from last year.
Planting of year 2001 first season coarse grain crops has started under relatively dry weather conditions, while third season crops, currently in reproductive state, are being harvested in April. Heavy rains in April damaged some area planted with paddy, but the crop is reported to be in good condition. Rice availability is usually low in March and April, but prices this year are not expected to rise significantly due to the government's decision to allow the import of 13 000 tonnes which will act as a reserve until harvests start in May. The land area planted with secondary food crops (yucca, beans and potatoes) is reported average.
Wheat imports in marketing year 2000/01 (Jul/Jun) are estimated at some 300 000 tonnes, while maize imports, mainly for feed, are expected to increase. Rice imports for marketing year 2001 (Jan/Dec) are forecast to remain unchanged from last year's 70 000 tonnes.
The country is beginning to recover from the January and February earthquakes, but food and other types of emergency relief assistance are still being provided by the international community. The government is concern that the approaching rains of April could provoke landslides, disrupting the cultivation of the forthcoming first season crop. In anticipation of the potential problems, the government is distributing input packages in an effort to ensure the planting of the crop. Official sources have already reported that output of basic grains is not likely to be below last year's level.
Although imports of basic grains in year 2001 are forecast to increase, the government does not expect severe food shortages in the short run. Wheat imports in marketing year 2000/01 (July/June) are expected to be some 200 000 tonnes, and maize imports about 440 000 tonnes. Rice imports in marketing year 2001 (Jan/Dec) are expected to increase from 30 000 tonnes to some 40 000 tonnes last year.
Normal weather conditions are favouring land preparation for the first season coarse grains crop to be sown in April/May, but no estimates of planting intentions are yet available. Food price increases have already been observed in some local markets, but these are not uncommon this time of the year because the supply decreases until August when maize crops are harvested.
Imports of maize in the 2000/01 marketing year (July/June) are expected to remain unchanged from last year's some 550 000 tonnes. Rice imports in marketing year 2001 (Jan/Dec) are expected to increase to some 35 000 tonnes, up from 30 000 tonnes in 2000.
It is the dry season in Haiti, but early prospects for the next crops are unfavourable. It is reported that in the Centre province farmers have not seen rains for the last six months and that water courses are at a critical low level. Similar reports are received from Artibonite, North and West provinces. The drought is affecting the development of the first season bean crop which is mainly grown in these provinces. A close monitoring of the weather is required in the following months, for the drought could be more severe than the one last year which extended into May and June affecting first season coarse grain crops. Maize is being planted in the important producing provinces of Grand Anse and Sud where drought has not been reported. The government is coordinating the supply of food aid as a way towards poverty alleviation and greater food security for the poorest families during these critical months between harvests. Food aid pledges for 2001 amount to 70 000 tonnes, of which 69 000 tonnes have been delivered.
Planting of first and most important maize season crop starts in April. Paddy farmers and the milling industry agreed this year a 5 percent price increase for the forthcoming crop in an effort to foster production amidst a climate of reconstruction. The accord is expected to result in a small expansion of the area planted in the first season (from April and due be harvested in September). The country has found it difficult to recover from the damage caused by Hurricane "Mitch" (late 1998) which plunged the economy into a deep recession, and the current outlook for the food situation is uncertain. As a result of last year's dry spell and low international coffee prices, the Honduran Coffee Institute estimates that coffee growers will incur a 30 per cent loss of income (coffee was Honduras' most important export crop before Hurricane "Mitch").
Previous favourable prospects for Mexico's irrigated autumn/winter wheat crops are now being questioned due to the lack of rains in early 2001. The area cultivated has been revised downwards and is now estimated to be 7 per cent lower than last year, and the forecast for production now stands slightly lower than 3.3 million tonnes. Dry weather conditions are not favouring Tamaulipas' non-irrigated sorghum crop, but total production in 2001 is forecast to increase reflecting larger plantings fostered by the strong demand from the livestock sector. Paddy production in 2001 is expected to remain unchanged from last year's some 420 000 tonnes.
Yellow maize imports in marketing year 2001/02 (Jul/Jun) are expected to increase slightly due to the sustained demand from the feed industry. Rice consumption is expected to increase in marketing year 2001 (Jan/Dec) to reflect increasing purchasing power and population growth, but large carry- over stocks from last year suggest that total imports will remain unchanged from last year's some 500 000 tonnes.
Following the damage caused by Hurricane "Mitch" in late 1998, government's efforts to diminish food insecurity in rural areas were blocked by last year's drought and low world coffee prices. However, recent apante harvest (third season crop) brings a sign of recovery, for its output is estimated to be average. Official sources indicate that the normal weather is favouring apante crops, which account for two thirds of bean and one third of maize total outputs. The area of apante beans harvested was revised upwards to some 75 000 hectares from an earlier estimate of 70 000 hectares. Land is currently being prepared for the forthcoming first season maize crop to be planted with the arrival of the rains in April, and normal weather conditions should produce a higher output in 2001 (about 320 000 tonnes) than the approximately 290 000 tonnes harvested last year.
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