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After a succession of reduced crops, the output of the recently harvested 2001 A season crops is estimated to be satisfactory. A recent locallyorganized FAO/WFP/UNICEF Assessment Mission estimated food production at 85 000 tonnes of cereals, 68 000 tonnes of pulses, 483 000 tonnes of roots and tubers and 465 000 tonnes of bananas and plantains, which is 15 percent, 10 percent, 4 percent and 1 percent respectively higher than in the 2000 A season. However, outputs remain below the pre-crisis (1988-1993) average levels, due to insecurity and disruption of agricultural production since 1993. The area planted increased significantly this season reflecting relatively better security in western parts, particularly in the provinces of Bubanza and Cibitoke, and the closure of regroupment camps in Bujumbura Rural Province, which allowed farmers to return to their fields. The other factor which contributed to higher plantings this season was the timely seed distribution by the Government and international agencies, mainly in Kirundo and Muyinga provinces, the areas worst affected by drought during the 2000 A season.
Despite a late start of the rainy season, precipitation was abundant and well distributed from October to November benefiting crop development. However, excessive rains in parts resulted in floods and crop losses and, in general, reduced yields, particularly for beans. Yields of bananas and plantains are expected to increase only from March/April as trees were seriously affected by previous prolonged dry weather. The small 2000 C season harvest in the marshlands, from mid-June to September, was poor reflecting the dry weather in previous months. Food output was estimated 4 percent below the level of the 1999 C season.
The tight food situation has eased with the arrival of the new harvest. Nevertheless, following several consecutive below average harvests, persistent insecurity and population displacements, as well as a recent malaria epidemic, the food and nutrition situation of vulnerable groups remains precarious. In particular, the situation is difficult for 324 000 internally displaced people and for drought affected persons in the provinces of Karuzi, Gitega, Kayanza and Muyinga. A recent nutritional survey in 7 provinces of the country indicated a 10 percent rate of acute global malnutrition. Similarly, a recent report by MSF indicated that the number of malnourished children admitted to its therapeutic feeding centres in Karuzi province had doubled in January 2001. Emergency food aid continues to be necessary for the vulnerable sections of the population.
The food situation continues to be tight for nearly 1.8 million people affected by the war with Ethiopia and last year's drought. The 2000 cereal crop was sharply reduced due to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of farmers from the agriculturally rich regions of Gash Barka and Debub, accounting for more than 70 percent of cereal production. The total cereal output is provisionally estimated at 71 000 tonnes, a decrease of 66 percent from the previous five years' average. Furthermore, prospects for the 2001 agricultural season, starting in the next few weeks, remains bleak with households unable to return to their farms, so far, and large tracts of land still inaccessible due to landmines.
Cereal prices, which normally decline after harvest, were generally increasing or remained unchanged in most market centres reflecting the poor harvest. In the light of ongoing humanitarian needs in Eritrea, the Eritrean Refugee and Relief Commission (ERREC) launched an appeal on 22 February 2001, for US$224 million to assist nearly 2 million people for a period of twelve months.
The UN Consolidated Inter-Agency Appeal, which includes project proposals from nine UN agencies, totals US$160 million.
Food aid pledges for 2001 amount to 55 000 tonnes but no deliveries have been made as yet.
The planting of the 2001 secondary "belg" season crops has commenced in several locations. Scattered showers fell in February but substantial rains were received in March. The "belg" crop accounts for around 8 to 10 percent of annual cereal and pulses production but in some areas it is the main harvest. Harvesting of the main 2000 "meher" season crops was completed in December last year. The meher crop had recovered strongly from earlier expectations due to abundant rainfall which continued through October, benefiting late sown crops. The meher harvest is estimated at 11.61 million tonnes of cereals, about 7.3 percent higher than the 1999 postharvest estimate, mainly due to an increase in area planted.
Livestock, particularly in the pastoralist areas, was devastated last year by a prolonged drought, which caused acute water and fodder shortages, exacerbated later by infectious diseases and parasites. The southern pastoralist areas of Somali, Borena, Bale and South Omo were worst hit and cattle losses at levels of up to 50 percent have been noted. Consequently, animal production among pastoralists and agro-pastoralists has been severely reduced and will take several years to recover. The late meher rains in 2000 helped considerably in regenerating pasture and browse and recharging water points. Animals in belg-dependant zones and woredas in the settled farming areas also suffered and draught animal numbers are reported to be lower than needed, affecting area planted and quality of land preparation.
The improved availability of cereals has resulted in falling grain prices in most markets. However, despite the good harvest, some 6.5 million people will require food assistance. The food aid requirement, including displaced and refugee needs, for 2001 marketing year (January/December) is estimated at about 640 000 tonnes. Donors are urged to support local purchases to provide some strength in the market.
The UN country team has recently launched an appeal for US$203 million to assist the 6.5 million people affected by drought and war.
Food aid pledges for 2001 amount to about 550 000 tonnes of which 125 000 tonnes have already been delivered.
The 2001 main "long rains" cropping season has begun and the outlook is favourable due to forecasts of normal rainfall in major producing areas. However, the outlook in pastoral areas remains bleak with expectations of below normal rainfall.
Harvesting of the 2000/01 secondary "short rains" cereal crop, accounting for some 15 to 20 percent of annual production, is complete. The unseasonable continuation of the rains well into January helped improve yields. This crop provides the main source of food in parts of Central and Eastern provinces. The main "long rains" cereal crop, harvested last September/October, was sharply reduced by a severe drought. Official estimates indicate maize output of about 1.7 million tonnes compared to 2.4 million tonnes average over the previous five years. The aggregate 2000 cereal production is provisionally estimated at 2.1 million tonnes, 22 percent and 28 percent below the previous year's crop and average respectively.
The severe drought in 1999/2000 seriously undermined the food security of 4.4 million people and resulted in a massive relief operation. Despite some improvement, the food supply situation is still fragile, particularly in the northern, eastern and north-eastern pastoral districts. The severe scarcity of water and pasture resulted in loss of large numbers of livestock and the process of recovery is rather slow.
An revised Emergency Operation was jointly approved in January 2001 by FAO and WFP for food assistance to the 4.4 million drought affected people, worth US$148.9 million for a period of six months.
Preliminary indications are that food output of the recently harvested 2001 A season crop is at around or slightly lower than the good level of last year. Despite a delay to the start of the rainy season, precipitation was abundant and well distributed from mid-October to December. Although excessive rains in November resulted in floods and crop losses in parts, mainly in Gisenyi and Butare Prefectures, they generally benefited plantings and yields, particularly of cereals and pulses. Production of roots and tubers and banana and plantains was less satisfactory reflecting shortages of planting material and prolonged dry weather. Also, despite the overall positive picture, a poor harvest was gathered in the Bugesera region of Kigali Rural Province, due to seed shortages following successive reduced crops. A locally-organized Government/FAO/WFP/EU Mission has assessed this season's food production but its findings are not yet available.
The tight food supply situation has eased with the new harvest. Prices of maize, beans and Irish potatoes have decreased from their levels of a year ago. However, despite the overall improvement in the food situation, emergency food assistance is anticipated to be needed until the next harvest for people in the Bugesera region, particularly in Kanzenze and Gashora districts. WFP plans to distribute 13 000 tonnes of emergency food assistance for three months to 267 000 drought-affected people in southeast Rwanda.
The output of the recently harvested secondary "deyr" season cereal crop, normally accounting for some 25-30 percent of annual cereal production, is estimated at 96 000 tonnes, significantly above the post-war average of 78 000 tonnes. Furthermore, the main "gu" season harvest was an aboveaverage 224 000 tonnes. The aggregate 2000 cereal production is thus estimated at about 320 000 tonnes, about 31 percent above the previous year.
The overall food supply situation in parts of southern Somalia has improved with the better "gu" and "deyr" harvests. However, recent nutrition surveys indicate continuing high malnutrition rates, reflecting slow household recovery from the succession of droughts and long-term effects of years of insecurity. Moreover, recent injections of new currency into the market with the attendant depreciation of the Somali Shilling have caused a sharp increase in prices of food items and essential goods.
Elsewhere, in north-western Somalia (Somaliland) and northeastern Somalia (Puntland), pasture and livestock conditions remain stable. However, the ban of livestock imports from eastern Africa by countries along the Arabian Peninsula due to a Rift Valley fever has caused substantial loss of income and is threatening the livelihoods of a large number of pastoral households.
Reflecting improved food supply, the estimated number of people in need of food assistance declined from 750 000 in 2000 to 500 000 this year. A UN interagency appeal was launched on 12 March for US $130 million, to support livelihoods and assist the country's recovery.
Prospects for the 2001 wheat crop, now being harvested, are promising, but total cereal production in 2000, estimated at 3.3 million tonnes, is about 23 percent below the previous five years' average, due to a below-average coarse grain harvest late last year following late rains and prolonged dry spells.
Serious food shortages have emerged in several parts of the country due to the reduced harvests and depletion of stocks, leading to a sharp rise in cereal prices. The population most affected by the current poor season are found mainly in Darfur, Kordofan, North Bahr el Ghazal, Bahr el Jebel, East Equatoria, Jonglei, Juba and Butana province in Gezira State. About 600 000 of the affected people are in dire need of food assistance. In addition, some 2.4 million people affected by the ongoing civil strife in the south will need continued assistance. With few resources left and coping mechanisms stretched to the limit, farmers and other vulnerable groups have already started to migrate in search of work and food. Consumption of seed grains will reduce their productive capacity and ability to sustain themselves in the coming agricultural season. A timely and targeted intervention is essential to prevent further human suffering.
The erratic rainfall also had a devastating effect on range vegetation, as well as on the availability of feed from grain and crop residues, especially in rainfed areas. The drastic fall in feed is expected to lead to widespread undernutrition in livestock. Market supply of livestock has increased substantially, depressing prices and thus household incomes.
A revised Emergency Operation was jointly approved in January 2001 by FAO and WFP for food assistance to 2.4 million people affected by war, drought and floods, worth an additional US$50.2 million for a period of 4 months.
Prospects for the main season coarse grains in the southern highlands are favourable due to abundant rains. In the bi-modal areas the main season maize crop is now being planted.
Aggregate 2000 cereal production, mainly maize, is estimated at about 3.7 million tonnes, about 13 percent below the previous five years average. The decline is attributed to drought conditions in several parts of the country. However, the overall food supply situation has improved due to increased on-farm stocks and market supplies following harvests of the "short rains" crop. This has helped to relieve pockets of food insecurity in the northern and central regions of the country resulting from successive seasons of poor harvests.
In December 2000 an Emergency Operation was jointly approved by FAO and WFP for food assistance to 1.3 million people affected by drought across 11 regions, worth US$15.8 million for a period of 5 months.
Harvesting of the 2000/01 second season cereal crops is completed. The output is expected to be above average, reflecting well distributed rains during the season. Rains in February have allowed land preparation and planting of the 2001 main season crop in most areas. The medium term forecast for March to May 2001 predicts an above-normal rainfall over southern Uganda but a near-normal to below-normal rainfall over northern parts.
The output of the main season crop, harvested from the middle of 2000, was below average due to drought and erratic rains in various parts of the country. Cereal production in 2000 is estimated to be about 12 percent below average at 1.6 million tonnes.
The overall food supply situation is
satisfactory.
However, the situation remains
precarious in districts of
Gulu, Kitgum, Bundibugyo,
and parts of Kasese and Kabarole, mainly due to last year's poor harvest and/or insecurity. WFP's food assistance benefits an estimated 1.1 million IDPs, refugees, and drought
affected people in the country.
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