FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 04/01 - INDIA (21 March)
Due to drought in some of the country's main wheat producing states, the wheat crop, to be harvested in the next few weeks, is expected to be considerably down, some 5 to 7 million tonnes from last year's record crop of 75.5 million tonnes. The area under wheat is reported to have declined by some three million hectares, from 27.4 million hectares in 2000, principally in rain fed states like Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan and parts of Maharashtra. However, the crop in large surplus wheat growing states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh is generally satisfactory, though unlikely to match last year�s record output. While the season has been generally free from pests and diseases, fertilizer consumption has declined marginally due to drought conditions. As a result of this decline, overall Rabi grain production is likely to fall to around 95-96 million tonnes this year, compared to 104 million tonnes in 1999/2000. The overall food grain production target for the 2000/01 marketing year is 212 million tonnes.
Earlier, the worst earthquake in fifty years ravaged the western state of Gujarat exacerbating existing food and water problems due to the second drought in succession. Ground water tables had already fallen appreciably, whilst many people had started to migrate. The country has had to endure a succession of natural disasters last year, including earlier drought and severe flooding in a number of states during the last monsoon season, which left many dead and thousands homeless.
At the end of the current marketing year, wheat stocks are projected at more than 20 million tonnes, some 40 percent above last year and five times the desired level. This is attributed to increases in farm support price (resulting in higher procurement), higher sales prices of wheat and rice through the PDS (resulting in low offtake) and weak world prices (limiting export opportunities). Government rice stocks have also increased significantly due to good harvests in recent years and increasing procurement.
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