FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 04/01 - LAOS* (23 March)
In September 2000, flooding which also affected neighbouring Cambodia and Vietnam devastated monsoon rice crops in central and southern parts of Lao PDR. The worst affected provinces were in the country’s rice basket and included Bolikhamsay, Khammuan and Savannakhet. In addition, rice production was also seriously damaged in Attapeau and Champassak, which are relatively more food insecure. In view of flood damage and concerns over developing food shortages, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission was requested by the Government and fielded to the country from 10 to 24 February. The main objectives of the Mission were to assess the overall rice supply situation and possible need for food aid for the 2001 marketing year (January/December). The findings of the Mission are based on discussion with Government and UN agencies and on field visits to affected rice producing provinces including Bolikhamsay, Khammuan, Savannakhet and Attapeau. In view of the growing commercial and trading importance of Vientiane Municipality and Vientiane Province, the Mission also visited these areas to assess any impact on markets.
The Mission found that in keeping with the Government's strong emphasis on agricultural development in recent years, there has been appreciable growth in rice output due to increased adoption of high yielding varieties and an increase in the area under irrigated dry season farming. In addition, in spite of the floods during the last wet season, rainfall overall was satisfactory, resulting in generally favourable production. Although precipitation was slightly lower than in 1999, it was normal in most of the main rice producing provinces. Moreover, relative to flood losses in other countries, especially in Cambodia and Vietnam, and to the devastating floods in Lao PDR in 1991 and 1996, the extent of damage to agriculture in 2000 was lower. Based on official data for 2000 wet season production and a tentative forecast for the 2001 dry season, the Mission projects milled rice production for the current marketing year at some 1.28 million tonnes. In addition there are around 22 000 tonnes of bilateral programme and emergency rice aid pledged or delivered for 2001. Total rice availability will amount to approximately 1.30 million tonnes which would entirely cover estimated utilisation needs.
However the Mission notes that the area under dry season cropping may not entirely materialise due to flood damage to irrigation pumps and structures and high pump and other input costs which may deter producers. As the extent of dry season output would have a significant bearing on total rice availability and, possibly, needs, it is recommended that a subsequent assessment be undertaken at the time of the dry season harvest to verify the overall food supply situation.
Although based on current projections Lao PDR will have a generally satisfactory rice situation in 2001, poorer sections of the population are unlikely to benefit as the level of market integration and development remains low due to enormous problems of transport and access, inadequate market information and because rice production remains largely for subsistence and agricultural incomes are low. Moreover, these factors, together with the precariousness of farming systems and the lack of adequate coping strategies, will mean that in areas where the entire rice crop was lost to the floods last year, households in 2001 will be exposed to serious food shortages. Such households, therefore, will need external assistance to bridge the gap between now and the next harvest. In addressing their needs, the Mission used ongoing WFP vulnerability analysis undertaken in collaboration with the Government and other partners. Based on this analysis, it is estimated that approximately 450 000 people were most affected by the floods last year, of whom an estimated 390 000 do not have access to dry season cropping. Based on village baseline data, an estimated 170 000 are transitory food insecure due to the floods These people will on average have food deficits of six months on average, and 52 percent of these will have more than eight months deficit. To cover the food needs of these vulnerable groups, the Mission advocates a total of 15 000 tonnes of rice, of which 8 680 has already been covered under EMOP6300 and 6311. Up to mid-February almost 3 000 tonnes of glutinous rice have been delivered to 111 000 beneficiaries in 266 villages.
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