FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 04/01 - UKRAINE (23 March)
Unlike the preceding two years, the early outlook for the 2001 winter cereals is good. The latest estimates indicate that the area sown to winter crops may have increased by up to 1.4 million hectares to 8.9 million hectares, some 0.5 million hectares more than previously estimated. The bulk of this is sown to winter cereals. Overwintering conditions have been mostly good in the 2000/01 season to date and some 88 percent of the crop are in good/satisfactory condition. So far, crop losses due to winterkill, reported between 300 000400 000 hectares, are well below average. Moreover, soil moisture reserves have been replenished in all areas except the south where they are nevertheless 70-80 percent of normal. The availability of inputs is better and satellite imagery shows markedly better conditions than at the corresponding time last year.
The government discontinued provision of commodity loans to agricultural enterprises last year. Instead it assists agricultural enterprises in obtaining working capital for sowing and harvesting crops. Among other things, this season, the government decided to compensate 70 percent of the interest payments on loans that agricultural enterprises obtain from commercial banks. The National Bank of Ukraine�s discount rate is used to calculate the amount of compensation. Meanwhile the moratorium on payment of valueadded tax by agricultural enterprises has been extended until 2004. In addition several tax breaks in the Law on Stimulating Development of Agriculture During the 2001- 2004 Period have been introduced.
Spring planting has started in the Crimea. As the area to be sown in the spring is also expected to increase, the area for harvest could be around 1 million hectares more than in 2000. Demand for contractual harvest services later this year is also greater than at the same time last year. The recent flood damage in Zarkapatia has led to loss of life and left thousands of people homeless but its effect on crops is likely to be limited. However, it could delay spring planting in that area. Provided normal weather continues until the completion of the harvests, the 2001 grain output could reach up to 30 million tonnes, compared to an estimated 23.4 million tonnes in 2000. However, the mild wet winter has led to increased weed infestation and disease and could affect crop quality. Despite the drought-reduced harvest in 2000, the country could remain a net exporter of cereals. In the first seven months of the current marketing year, the country has exported in excess of 1.2 million tonnes (mainly barley) and imported roughly 0.6 million tonnes (mainly wheat). In the 2000/01 marketing year, aggregate cereal exports are anticipated to halve to 1.5 million tonnes while imports should increase to about 900 000 tonnes, from just over 600 000 tonnes in 1999/2000.
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