FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 04/01 - RUSSIAN FEDERATION (23 March)

The early outlook for the 2001 winter cereals is good. The area sown to winter crops for harvest in the spring/summer of this year increased to 14.7 million hectares, mainly due to larger plantings in the North Caucasus. Overwintering conditions have been good overall and over 90 percent of the winter wheat, barley and rye crop is in good to satisfactory condition. Heavy snowfall this winter has provided good soil moisture reserves in most areas except limited parts of the North Caucasus and adjoining areas. Satellite imagery shows better crop development in most areas where winter cereals have emerged from dormancy.

Spring grain planting has started in the most southerly areas. Good demand for cereals coupled with adequate moisture supplies are expected to lead to an increase in the area of spring cereals, notably in the North Caucasus and Volga regions. The aggregate area to be sown to grains is officially estimated to reach up to 48.6 million hectares, up to 3 million hectares more than in the past year. Given normal conditions until the harvest, the 2001 grain harvest could exceed last year�s 71 million tonnes, including 38 million tonnes of wheat and 31 million tonnes of coarse grains. FAO�s production estimates are about 10 percent higher than the official estimates, in view of systematic underestimation.

In the 2000/01 marketing year, cereal imports are forecast to fall to about half of last year�s level (8.4 million tonnes) and to be partially offset by exports amounting to around 2 million tonnes. Cereal imports up to December amount to 1.6 million tonnes while exports total nearly 1 million tonnes.

Food insecurity is primarily a problem of access rather than availability. Income distribution is very uneven. Some 50 percent of the population live below the poverty line of US$4.30/person/day. Specific causes of poverty include arrears in the payment of pensions, salaries and wages.

In Chechnya, the outlook for the 2001 grain harvest remains bleak due to lack of financial resources and fuel. The 2000 agricultural production was greatly compromised by the security situation as well as the shortages of machinery, fuel and inputs.

The conflict in Chechnya continues to cause severe hardship for the local and displaced population within the country and in surrounding areas. An estimated 170 000 persons remain displaced inside Chechnya and 155 000 are registered in Ingushetia. Relief operations are seriously hindered by problems of security and a severe shortage of resources. In March, WFP distributed partial rations to 33 600 Chechen IDPs in Ingushetia (only wheat flour) and to 6 000 school children in Chechnya (high-energy biscuits).

Back to menu