FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 04/01 - UZBEKISTAN (22 March)
At this early stage of the season, crop development is less than at the corresponding time last year in most areas except Tashkent oblast. However, this could be due to colder weather and/or later plantings. Early reports indicate that the area sown to winter cereals has increased slightly, despite late and reduced planting in the northern areas affected by severe water shortage in the summer and autumn of 2000. The final outcome will depend crucially on precipitation in the coming months and the adequacy of snow and glacier melt in neighbouring countries to replenish irrigation reserves affected by last year�s drought.
The 2000 grain harvest is officially estimated at 3.9 million tonnes, below target (5.8 million tonnes) and some 10 percent below the previous year. Output was reduced as a result of a shortage of irrigation water following a mild winter and poor management of water resources, with catastrophic impacts on agriculture in the down river regions of the AmuDarya, the Autonomous Region of Karakalpakstan and Khorizem, but particularly the former. Output of cotton, a major export crop with which imports of wheat and machinery are financed, has fallen to 3 million tonnes compared to 3.6 million tonnes last year. The rice harvest (irrigated) is also sharply down to 155 000 tonnes from 421 000 tonnes in 1999.
Imports of foodstuffs have declined in recent years in part due to a sharp increase in cereal production (notably wheat), and in part, to maximize funds available for the creation of import substituting industries. Nevertheless, the import requirement for wheat in 2000/01 is estimated at over 800 000 tonnes. The bulk of cereal imports will be mobilized commercially but the government has requested (and received) 38 200 tonnes of durum wheat for pasta production. Larger volumes of cereals than normal will have to be transferred to drought affected populations. Budget constraints may reduce the capacity of the government to make adequate provision for the affected populations but the central government has not requested any emergency food assistance. A rapid nutrition assessment in November-December in Karakalpakstan showed low levels of acute malnutrition but led MSF to conclude that there is evidence for widespread stunting in children under five.
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