FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 06/01 - EC (11 June)
Conditions for the 2001 cereal crops remain mixed. Northern parts of the community were generally characterized by abundant rainfall during April and early May, which hampered spring and summer crop planting and other spring field activities such as fertilizer application. However, by mid- May, a period of drier and warmer conditions eased earlier problems of excess moisture and soil conditions improved. By contrast, in the Iberian Peninsula, lack of rainfall and above normal temperatures in April stressed the most advanced crops. However, conditions for newly planted summer crops improved in mid-May with cooler temperatures and the arrival of some light rain showers.
Latest information confirms expectations of a decrease in the EC cereal crop in 2001, largely reflecting a significant contraction in the winter sown soft wheat area. The aggregate wheat crop in 2001 is now forecast at 97.5 million tonnes, somewhat down from the forecast in the previous report and 7.5 percent down from last year�s bumper crop. Apart from the large area reduction, yield prospects have reduced somewhat over the past two months because of less than optimum growing conditions in many parts. Regarding coarse grains, although the outcome of spring/summer crop planting is still uncertain, tentative forecasts point to an overall reduction in output to just under 108 million tonnes, compared to 108.3 million tonnes in 2000. While barley production may decrease slightly, output of maize could increase if the larger area expected in France, the Community�s major producer, should materialize. The 2001/02 paddy season is in progress but planting intentions remain largely uncertain. Pending more information, production in the EC is tentatively forecast to recover from the 11 percent contraction experienced last year that followed from flood-induced losses in Italy. Area ceilings at the national level under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), continue to limit the scope for large increase in plantings. However, such ceilings were overshot last year in Spain. Abundant water availability in the country, combined with steady productivity gains, might induce planting to yet again exceed the CAP national planting limit, despite the resulting penalties to producer income payments in breach of the ceiling.