FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 06/01 - ARMENIA* (24 May)
The outlook for the 2001 cereal harvest has improved with above-average rains in April and May, which helped replenish soil moisture and irrigation reserves. However, cumulative rains for the 2000/01 growing season remain below normal in several locations and regular rain in the coming month remains crucial if a good cereal harvest is to be achieved. Satellite imagery indicates that overall biomass development is markedly better than at the corresponding time last year. Early indications remain that the shortage of seed after the drought-reduced 2000 grain harvest (225 000 tonnes) has resulted in about 34 percent reduction in the area sown to winter wheat to 65 000 hectares. It is hoped to increase the areas sown to spring cereals to 108 000 hectares, while the total spring crop target is 197 000 hectares including 33 million hectares to potatoes (2000: 34 million hectares) and 21 000 ha to vegetables.
Despite the reduced winter wheat plantings, the 2001 grain (cereal and pulse) harvest could exceed the 220 000 tonnes projected earlier by FAO. However in view of the deficit in winter precipitation, the final outcome, and the food security situation next year, will depend crucially on regular rains throughout the growing season, not only for grains but also other basic crops. Indications are that the country could import up to 400 000 tonnes of cereals in 2000/01 and a similar amount is likely to be needed also in 2001/02.
Survey data indicate that up to 68 percent of the population is destitute, poor or close to the poverty line and that 55 percent of the population is either poor or destitute. Poor households are defined as having a per capita level of consumption below the poverty line (a minimum basket of food and consumer goods), and destitute households as having a per capita level of consumption below the food line (a minimum basket of food goods), with the two lines set at 11 735 drams (US$21.5) and 7 194 drams per month. Some 32 percent of the population live in poverty and almost 23 percent are destitute; the corresponding figures for households are 30 percent and 19 percent respectively. Moreover, some households are regarded as potentially poor, as their incomes are in the range 12 000-12 500 drams, only narrowly exceeding the poverty line. As a result, up to 68 percent of the population could need some form of poverty- related social protection. The survey also revealed that the real level of unemployment is 27.3 percent, well above the official estimate of 10.0-11.5 percent. The average monthly salary is 20 157 drams, or less than twice the poverty level, and some 17 percent of the workforce earn too little to secure an income above the food line. However, wages are not the main source of monetary income: they comprise only 24.6 percent of incomes, whereas sales of agricultural production account for 32.1 percent, revenues from self-employment for 10.6 percent, and state pensions and allowances for 9.3 percent. Some 19.3 percent of incomes are transfers from relatives, including 12.8 percent from remittances (this item alone is more significant than state pensions and allowances). Only 0.1 percent of incomes are related to property (i.e., leases, interest, dividends etc), highlighting the limited impact of privatisation on earning patterns. There is a high degree of income inequality. The income level among the wealthiest 20 percent of the population is 32.2 times that of the poorest 20 percent. The survey also confirmed that at least 620 000 Armenians (and possibly up to 1 million), out of an official population of 3.8 million, are currently abroad seeking alternative sources of income. Most of those abroad are of working age, and two- thirds are men.
Debilitating political, economic and social problems over the past decade have resulted in widespread un- and under-employment and food insecurity. The levels of chronic malnutrition among children of 3-59 months range between 14 and 32 percent with an average of 22 percent. These levels are considered moderate but show an increasing trend in the levels of malnutrition in the last two years. WFP has extended its emergency food assistance to drought victims until the end of December 2001 and plans to continue food assistance to nearly 300 000 subsistence farmers. This Emergency Operation (EMOP) will be fully integrated with the upcoming Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (PRRO), effective from July 2001, providing some 60 000 tonnes of food supplies to about 280 000 drought affected population. WFP, by mid 2003, would have distributed more than 68 000 tonnes of food commodities under the EMOP and PRRO.