In Canada, with the 2001 spring planting season virtually completed, latest information confirms earlier expectations of a decline in the overall wheat area. The latest official forecast puts the wheat area to be harvested later this year at 10.7 million hectares, 2 percent down from the previous year. In addition, following adversely dry seeding conditions in Alberta and parts of Saskatchewan, the average yield for Western Canada is likely to be less than anticipated earlier and the country�s aggregate wheat output is now forecast at 23.7 million tonnes, some 2 million tonnes down from earlier expectations. For coarse grains, latest indications continue to point to an increase in area. The barley area is expected to increase by 4-5 percent to almost 4.7 million hectares, while that of maize, by 14 percent, to about 1.2 million hectares. However, yield expectations for coarse grains, barley in particular, have also been curbed by the dry planting conditions, and the forecast of aggregate output has been reduced somewhat from earlier this year to about 27 million tonnes. This would, nevertheless, be some 10 percent up from 2000.
Aggregate (winter and spring) wheat production in 2001 is officially forecast at 53.4 million tonnes, 12 percent down from the previous year. The area of winter wheat to be harvested in 2001 is now forecast at about 13 million hectares, some 8 percent down from 2000 and the smallest area since 1971. Regarding spring wheat, planting was virtually complete by late May and, if early indications in the USDA's Prospective Plantings Report have materialized, the area will be down by about 1 percent from 2000 to 7.7 million hectares. With regard to coarse grains, according to the USDA's Prospective Plantings Report, a decrease in the overall area sown is expected compared to the previous year. Plantings of Maize, barley and oats are seen to decrease while the area of sorghum could increase. Planting of maize was reported to be about 90 percent complete by time of the USDA June 4 Crop Progress Report, similar to last year�s pace and the average. Based on the indicated areas planted, and assuming normal weather conditions prevail for the remainder of the season, aggregate 2001 coarse grains output in the United States is forecast at about 267 million tonnes, about 3 percent down from the previous year. Of the total, maize would account for 243 million tonnes. Planting of the 2001/02 paddy crop is underway. Concerns over recurrent power shortages in the major growing state of California, necessary for irrigation, and concerns over reduced demand by millers, have dampened output expectations for this season�s crop. Consequently, paddy production for 2001/02 is officially forecast to fall by about 3 percent from the previous year to 8.4 million tonnes.