FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 06/01 - TAJIKISTAN* (1 June)
The outlook for the 2001 cereal harvest is not good. The latest official data available indicate that the area sown to wheat, contrary to earlier expectations, has not declined due to shortages of seed after last year’s drought- reduced crop, but remained stable at 345 000 hectares. However, after last years' drought some plantings were late. Salination problems, due to the poor state of the irrigation/water management system and inadequate drainage, persist. Fertilizer use also remains low in part reflecting high world oil prices. In addition, very partial data indicate that while precipitation in the period October–December 2000 was more than in the corresponding period the preceding year, its level between January and April has been markedly less. The government has requested help to meet food supply needs in view of fears of a drought for the second year in succession.
Satellite imagery up to mid-May indicate that biomass development is less than in 2000 in southern Khatlon and northern Leninabad regions, but still better further upstream along the major rivers. Crop development is markedly less than in 1999, when aggregate grain production was officially estimated at 482 000 tonnes. Hot weather with temperatures above normal has persisted since late April, increasing moisture stress and irrigation needs. If the hot dry conditions persist, food and cotton crop output will again be reduced. At this early stage, given yields somewhat lower than last year’s, the 2001 grain harvest could fall below 350 000 tonnes. However, the final outcome will depend crucially on the intensity and duration of the drought.
Two successive unfavourable years for basic food production could have severe consequences for the population. Many households are already in dire condition. The Government has appealed for international assistance. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is currently assessing the impact of the drought on crops and evaluating the food supply situation including the food assistance needs of the affected population.
WFP has launched an appeal for 126 000 tonnes of food aid worth $62 million to implement an emergency operation to assist over one million people who are in serious need of food assistance. More than 15 600 tonnes of food commodities were distributed to 775 000 drought-affected population in the first quarter of 2001. WFP plans to extend food distribution programmes until December 2001. Without adequate assistance, about 1.2 million people will face a very difficult situation with virtually no employment opportunities or other sources of income to purchase food from the market.