FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 06/01 - TURKMENISTAN (6 June)
Irrigation water shortages again this year, could result in the (ambitious) official grain and cotton production targets not being achieved. The winter wheat production target is 2 million tonnes and in addition quantities of rice and maize are also grown in the spring. Winter cereals are officially reported to be planted on some 775 000 hectares, which would be some 10 percent more than last year in a country largely consisting of desert, where the bulk of crops need irrigation. The drive to increase rice production, which failed last year, is continuing and this year some 40 000 hectares are planned to be sown by specialised producers.
The official estimates of the areas sown could be unrealistic. The fact that wheat, rice and cotton are crops which remain under state marketing orders, and for which inputs can be mobilised, could also mean that the areas sown are being overestimated and inputs diverted to other food crops. Moreover, most private sources also find crop yield estimates inflated. On the one hand, land privatisation and private responsibility for production under leasehold has provided incentives to maximise yields. On the other hand, unofficial sources indicate that actual wheat yields are between 1.5-2.0 tonnes per hectare rather than the 2.5�2.6 tonnes per hectare officially reported since 1999. Salinisation due to excessive irrigation of fragile desert soils and poor drainage is a growing problem.
In view of these considerations, and the sharp increase in cereal availability given the official forecasts, FAO has lowered its production series since 1999. Output of wheat in 2000 is now estimated at 1.4 million tonnes and total grain production at 1.5 million tonnes. Early reports indicate that the reservoir levels are lower than last year and water has only been available for one irrigation in April. It is reported that inadequate water was available to irrigate crops in May and that this, in addition to compromising the yield of spring grain and cotton crops, could also affect the yield of winter wheat. The worst affected areas are said to be Dashagouz province (bordering Karakalpakstan and nearer the tail end of the Amu Darya River) and Mary province (bordering Iran and Afghanistan). Mary province is dependent on the Murghab river for irrigation, which has been reportedly dry for most part of the spring crop growing season. Given the threat of water shortages, the outlook for the 2001 foodcrop harvests is to decrease despite reports of a larger area sown.
Imports of wheat have fallen sharply in recent years and are estimated to remain stable at about 40 000 tonnes in 2001/02 provided the cereal production forecasts materialise. However, data on trade is difficult to obtain and there are reports of informal flows of wheat flour. The government strategy emphasises increased domestic wheat and rice production, to minimise import needs. At the same time the government also wishes to quintuple cotton seed production by the year 2010.