FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 06/01 - RUSSIAN FEDERATION (30 May)
Spring planting is proceeding well ahead of last year’s pace. By mid May, over half of the targeted spring grain area had been sown. Growing conditions for both the winter and spring crops have been mostly good, with adequate precipitation in most areas. Indications are that the aggregate area sown to grains (winter and spring) will increase by over 2 million hectares to nearly 48 million hectares, including 35 million hectares of spring grains. Most marked increase in grain sowing is expected in the Volga river basin and Central Regions. Winter grain crops were sown on 14.7 million hectares. Winterkill was limited to an average of about 1.2 million hectares.
Overall, the outlook for the 2001 grain harvest is good so far. Official forecasts put the 2001 grain harvest at 65-70 million tonnes, up to 5 million tonnes more than in 2000 ( 65.4 million tonnes). FAO tentatively forecasts this year’s grain harvest at about 74 million tonnes, some 3 million tonnes more than its estimate for 2000 (71 million tonnes), about 10 percent higher than the official estimates. The Grain Union estimates that about 10-20 percent of the grain market operations are in the shadow market. Severe flooding in Yakutia has caused hardship and losses but is unlikely to affect the overall level of production.
Following a relatively good harvest in 2000, cereal imports in the marketing year 2000/01 are expected to fall to 2.4 million tonnes, compared to 8.4 million in the previous year. This includes 1.4 million tonnes of wheat and 0.7 million tonnes of coarse grains (barley, maize and rye). Cereal exports are estimated to reach 1.24 million tonnes, compared to 0.67 million tonnes in the preceding year. Official reports indicate that total grain stocks, as of 1st May, stood at 16.3 million tonnes, nearly 4 million tonnes (29 percent) higher than at the corresponding time in the preceding year. The country’s grain stocks is also reported to be sufficient to cover consumption needs until the upcoming harvest.
Official reports indicate that the spring crop area target in Chechnya is 116 000 hectares, including 63 000 hectares of grains. Nearly 38 000 hectares (33 percent of plan) had already been cultivated as of 15 May. The comparable figure for last year was 29 000 hectares. However, security problems and lack of sufficient farm inputs continue to compromise production.
Displaced and otherwise conflict-affected persons in Chechnya and in neighbouring Ingushetia continue to depend on WFP and NGOs for basic and complementary food assistance.
During the second half of May a total of 1 900 tonnes WFP food commodity was distributed to approximately 131 000 beneficiaries in both Republics. Funding constraints continue to limit WFP activities.