FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 06/01 - UZBEKISTAN (4 June)
The outlook for the 2001 cereal harvests is again threatened by a shortage of irrigation water. As at end April, river flows at most stations on both the Syr Darya and Amu Darya were less than at the corresponding time last year. Unless glacier melt increases, in response to very hot temperatures since late April, there remains the risk that irrigation water supplies could be inadequate to meet crop needs in the region. Irrigation levels are low for a number of reasons, precipitation in the catchment area that was not adequate to offset last year’s low levels, the diversion of water resources to generate hydro-electricity upstream in the winter months and the increasingly poor state of the irrigation system. If this situation persists, the outlook is for another reduced spring crop harvest.
Unseasonably high temperatures since late April have allowed early spring planting but have also increased irrigation needs. Planting of cotton, the major cash crop has been virtually completed. Planting of spring grains (mainly rice and maize) and other food crops may be affected by the shortage of irrigation water. In Karakalpakstan, (KK) the area worst affected by the water shortage last year, the total area sown to spring crops has roughly fallen by half to about 200 000 hectares. Virtually no land has been planted to rice (the target was 80 000 hectares) and as a result, the aggregate area sown to rice could fall to about 75 000 hectares from a low of 125 000 hectares last year. The area sown to cotton in KK is also reduced by up to a third.
The latest official estimates reconfirm that the area sown to winter wheat has decreased by about 100 000 hectares, to an estimated 1.2 million hectares as some rainfed land has been taken out of production. As a result of lower wheat and rice plantings, the aggregate area sown to grains for harvest in 2001 is estimated at only 1.4 million hectares, some 200 000 hectares less than last year. Given drought also in neighbouring countries, the 2001 grain harvest could be less than last year’s poor 3.9 million tonnes.
An FAO/WFP joint mission in October 2000 in response to the water shortages in that year found that some 45 000 people in KK would experience food supply problems unless assisted. This number could be higher if the water shortage situation repeats itself this year.