FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 06/01 - YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (4 June)

YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (4 June)

The winter wheat harvest, to be started this month, has fared fairly well in response to generally good precipitation since December and despite dry conditions in the autumn, late plantings, shortages of fertilizer and a general disarray in the sector following the change of government. Estimating the area sown and the upcoming harvest is difficult in view of the uncertain benchmarks on which to base forecasts. Earlier reports that the area sown to winter cereals, (mainly wheat) had reached the targeted 700 000-750 000 hectares, despite the autumn dry conditions and shortages of inputs and money, are increasingly being queried and the figure of 670 000 hectares sown to wheat for harvest in 2001 is thought to be more realistic. Up to end May, satellite imagery indicates that crop development is on a par with last year, except that crops are better in the eastern Voyvodina, an area severely affected by flooding and prolonged waterlogging last year. Given the FAO Crop Assessment estimate of between 1.7 and 1.8 million tonnes of wheat, harvested from an area in the range of 0.6-0.64 million hectares, and the shortages of fuel, fertilizer and other inputs in 2000, the wheat harvest is forecast at about 2 million tonnes for 2001. This is below the official expectations of 2.9 million tonnes from 800 000 hectares.

With regard to the spring crops, the outlook remains uncertain. Soil moisture reserves are rebounding with good spring rains but have not yet been fully replenished. Crop yields will continue to depend on regular rains throughout the growing period until October. The area being sown to maize is officially forecast to reach 1.4 million hectares. Maize prices in the country continue to be more attractive than wheat prices, giving farmers good incentives to plant maize (the commodity is less subject to market regulation than wheat). However, even if the planned area target is achieved, the official target of a bumper yield of 6 million tonnes seems high, given shortages of fuel and agro- chemicals. Indications are that plantings of sugarbeet and soya are likely to be reduced.

WFP is currently targeting about 700 000 refugees and socially vulnerable people. WFP plans to reduce this number by half by mid-2002. In addition the ICRC assists 200 000 IDPs with an individual food ration and 100 000 people (social cases) through a hot meal under their soup kitchen programme.

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