The overall food situation is very grave, with a large proportion of the population facing starvation. After three consecutive years of drought, most people have exhausted their coping mechanisms and are compelled to leave home and join the ranks of IDPs or refugees. This alarming situation is expected to worsen by recent displacements and evacuation of all UN staff due to concerns about possible attack against Afghanistan following the 11 September events in the United States. Famine indicators such as substantially reduced food intakes, collapse of the purchasing power, decimating livestock, large-scale depletion of personal assets, soaring food grain prices, rapidly increasing number of destitute people, and ever swelling ranks of IDPs and refugees are widely observed.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in May 2001 found that three successive years of below average crop production due to drought, continuing civil conflict and harsh winter have resulted in a grave food crisis. Rainfed crops (wheat and barley) had almost totally failed, except in a few pockets in different regions. Rainfed wheat production in 2001 was estimated to be about 40 percent less than even last year�s extremely low output. The 2001 irrigated cereal production was also, like that of 2000, severely affected by drought. The Mission thus estimated the 2001 total cereal production at 2.03 million tonnes - about 12 percent larger compared to 2000 but smaller by 37 percent compared to 1999. As a result, the cereal import requirement in the 2001/02 marketing year (July/June) was estimated at about 2.2 million tonnes, including 1.4 million tonnes of food aid needs.
An Emergency Operation was jointly approved in August 2001 by FAO and WFP for food assistance for about 5.6 million people affected by drought, worth a total sum of US$150.7 million for a period of 12 months (November 2001 to October 2002).
Improved precipitation and better soil moisture contributed to a recovery in cereal production from a severely droughtreduced harvest the previous year. FAO tentatively estimates grain output at 352 000 tonnes from an estimated cultivated area of 189 000 hectares (2000: 225 000 tonnes, area 181 000 ha). Wheat production in 2001 at 275 000 tonnes is nearly double the harvest obtained last year, 151 000 tonnes. Official estimates point to a wheat harvest of 340 000 tonnes. Insufficient improved seeds and fertilizers as well as drought, in particular in the southern provinces bordering Iran and Azerbaijan, are reported to be contributing factors to below average production levels, despite significant efforts to increase area under cereals.
Potato production, a major staple food crop, this year is estimated at 287 000 tonnes, similar to 2000 level but more than 30 percent below the average production levels in 1990s. Total cereal import requirement in 2001/02 is seen to reach 398 000 tonnes, including 101 000 tonnes of food aid. Cereal imports in 2000/01 were 369 000 tonnes.
WFP has extended its emergency food assistance to drought victims until the end of December 2001, which has been fully integrated with the Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (PRRO) launched on 1 July 2001. Under this two-year programme, WFP intends to provide over 60 000 tonnes of food supplies to some 280 000 recipients (140,000 per year). The targeted areas include the provinces of Gegharkunik, Syunik, Tavush, Shirak, and the Capital City of Yerevan as well as the drought-affected regions in the southern part of Armenia.
The recent winter cereal harvest was generally satisfactory and unaffected by drought and water shortages. However, the planned increase in area under spring crops did not materialize. Therefore, FAO tentatively forecasts grain production at 1.6 million tonnes, about 130 000 tonnes more than last year and nearly 500 000 tonnes more than 1999. The increase is mainly due to larger areas grown to cereals, nearly 700 000 hectares in 2001 compared with 648 000 hectares in 2000, at the expense of cotton and fodder crops. The grain output includes 1.3 million tonnes of wheat, 200 000 tonnes of barley and 100 000 tonnes of maize.
Cereal import requirement is anticipated at 720 000 tonnes compared to 796 000 tonnes imported in 2000/01, most of which will be imported commercially. The vulnerable and internally displaced population continue to depend on targeted food assistance. WFP has committed some 47 880 tonnes of food aid under a 3-year project (Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation) that began in July 1999 supporting some 485 000 beneficiaries.
In early August, river floods due to seasonal (July/September) heavy rains, left over 1 000 villagers homeless and swamped croplands in the northern and northeastern parts of the country. The districts of Sylhet, Sunamganj and Netrokona were among the most affected. The floods reportedly damaged the newly transplanted Aman rice, but no detailed assessment of damage has been made available yet.
The main crop currently in the ground is the aman/monsoon paddy crop, which is normally planted in June/July for harvest from October. Although previously the crop was the largest of the country�s three paddy crops, in recent years the irrigated boro crop, which is planted in January for harvest in April/May, has gained in importance . This is largely due to increased groundwater irrigation through tubewells. Harvesting of the smallest of the paddy crops, the aus crop, has been recently completed. Current forecasts indicate that paddy production in year 2001 should be a bumper 36.6 million tonnes (24.4 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent), which is close to year 2000 well aboveaverage harvest.
Wheat output harvested earlier this year is estimated at 2 million tonnes which compares to year 2000 average production of 1.8 million tonnes and to the past 5-year average of 1.7 million tonnes. Imports of wheat in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) are likely to be similar to the previous year 1.3 million tonnes mainly due to strong domestic demand and attractive prices in neighbouring countries.
Torrential rains and heavy flooding during most of August continue to affect the country. The number of casualties so far is officially estimated as 35 and more than 700 000 people, principally along the Mekong River, have been forced to flee their homes. Over 135 000 are in need of food assistance according to official sources. Much of the overflow of the river has been due to rains upstream in Vietnam, Thailand and Laos. Emergency assistance is being provided by the government and relief requested from international humanitarian agencies. Significant damage to the agricultural sector, housing and rural infrastructure is reported. A government estimate indicates that damage is well over US $20 million.
The heavy rains followed an extremely dry month of July, during which several provinces in southern and western parts registered precipitation levels much below the July average of the previous 30-40 years. It is officially reported that, in 9 out of the 24 provinces of the country, some 13 216 hectares of paddy and 2 776 hectares of seedlings, for a total of nearly 16 000 hectares, were affected by the severe drought, thus slowing down planting of the country�s main wet rice crop for harvesting in December. (At present, some 12 provinces are still affected by the drought.) The wet season crop accounts for about 80 percent of paddy production. Rice accounts for some 84 percent of annual food crop production and is planted on around 90 percent of cropped area, mainly in the Central Mekong Basin and Delta and the Tonle Sap Plain.
Despite the damage incurred, early production forecasts indicate that paddy output in year 2001 should be about 4.3 million tonnes (2.7 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent), some 274 000 tonnes above last year�s aboveaverage output. Harvesting of this year�s maize crop has only started and output is provisionally forecast also to be above average, at 165 000 tonnes.
Heavy seasonal and storm rains since early July have resulted in flash floods and mudslides particularly in the south, while a most severe drought in some parts of the west and north of the country has affected tens of millions of people and livestock.
The torrential rains in the first days of July, caused by typhoons �Durian� and �Utor�, principally affected the provinces of Guangdong and Guangxi Zhuang, depriving farmers of the summer rice harvest in late July. Preliminary flood assessments indicate that about 560 000 hectares in Guangdong and 670 000 hectares in Guangxi were affected. Some 15 million people, including a large number of victims, have been affected. Significant damage to rural infrastructure is also reported. Torrential rains in the third week of August worsened the situation, particularly in the southwestern province of Yunnan, where an increasing number of victims is reported and substantial damage to crops, as well as to housing and infrastructure, has been registered. At the end of August, tropical storm �Fitow� brought torrential rains again to the southern provinces of Guangdong and Hainan, causing some damage to fieldcrops, mainly rice and sugar cane, and coastal fisheries.
Meanwhile, it is reported that the western province of Sichuan is suffering from its worst drought in 50 years. About 5.5 million people, almost 6 million cattle and more than 3.25 million hectares of crops, principally rice, some soybeans and maize, are affected. It is estimated that nearly 500 000 hectares of these will yield almost nothing. By contrast, rains resumed by end July in the other drought affected provinces of Heilongjiang and Jilin, the largest soybean and maize producing areas respectively, in the northeast.
Wheat production in year 2001 is officially forecast at 93.9 million tonnes, compared to the previous year�s 99.6 million tonnes and well below the average of 111.4 million tonnes of the past 5 years. Maize output is expected to be about 111.4 million tonnes, some 5 percent above last year�s volume but much below the average of almost 120 million tonnes for the past five years. Official forecasts point to a paddy output in 2001 of some 179 million tonnes, compared to 187.9 million tonnes in 2000 and a 5-year average of nearly 196 million tonnes.
The 2001 aggregate output of wheat and barley is estimated at 97 000 tonnes, slightly higher than the previous five year�s average. Imports of wheat in 2001/02 (May/April) are forecast at 100 000 tonnes, while aggregate imports of barley and maize are forecast at some 540 000 tonnes, unchanged from last year.
The main agricultural activity at present is the harvesting of the off-season maize crop, and planting of the off-season paddy crops. Prospects are relatively favourable due to adequate rainfall, as well as increased seed availability and acreage.
Land preparation for the main season crops will commence in October for planting to be undertaken between November and January.
Cereal production has significantly recovered from the severely drought affected crop in 2000, owing mainly to favourable weather conditions and the availability of farm inputs, the latter predominantly through international assistance. FAO tentatively estimates grain output at 613 000 tonnes (2000: 391 000 tonnes), including 200 000 tonnes of wheat, 350 000 tonnes of maize and 50 000 tonnes of barley. However, drought in the west this summer has resulted in partial or complete loss of maize and vegetables in some areas.
Given the national cereal consumption requirement of nearly 1.2 million tonnes in 2001/02 marketing year, import requirements, mostly wheat, are estimated at about 510 000 tonnes, including 81 000 tonnes of food aid. Cereal imports in 200/01 were 657 000 tonnes.
Following an appeal for 66 000 tonnes in food aid to assist 696 000 drought-affected and vulnerable people, 42 500 tonnes of food have been pledged and 68 percent have already arrived in the country, with the rest (13 482 tonnes) will be arriving in mid-October. The EMOP is almost 65 percent funded. Since February 2001, WFP has distributed 25 500 tonnes of wheat flour, vegetable oil and beans to 540 300 beneficiaries in 6 drought affected regions of West and East Georgia. Currently, the third and final round of food distribution is being finalized in two regions. WFP plans to continue food assistance in one region of West Georgia where subsistence farmers are facing a second year of drought. At the same time WFP continues to implement PRRO 6122.01. Under the recovery component of the operation, FFW projects have began in two regions of West Georgia with planned rehabilitation activities of cash-crop plantations, drainage and irrigation systems and public infrastructure.
Most parts of the country have been receiving above-normal monsoon rains since June; the rains have been excessive and resulted in heavy flooding particularly in the eastern states of Orissa and Bihar. According to latest official sources, more than 8.7 million people have been affected in the state of Orissa alone, which was recovering from a devastating cyclone two years ago, while about 2.16 million people have been affected in the state of Bihar. Over 240 000 homes have been damaged or destroyed and 40 000 people left without shelter. An increasing number of victims is reported. Hundreds of villages have been literally submerged by the flood waters from the main rivers, and rice fields have been swamped and crops destroyed. In the mountainous Himachal Pradesh state in the north, in the Hymalayan region, landslides caused by the incessant rains, and consequent casualties are also reported. In early September heavy rains also affected the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, where a number of casualties is reported as well as damage to housing. Relief assistance is being provided by the government and international humanitarian agencies.
Paddy and coarse grains are the main crops currently in the ground for harvest from September. Production figures for 2001/02 are tentative as a detailed assessment of damage to crops has not been made available yet; however, increases in cereal production are tentatively forecast with respect to 2000/01 production year. Paddy output is forecast at about 131 million tonnes (87.8 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent), well above the previous year�s production of 128.8 million tonnes. Maize output is expected to be a nearrecord 12 million tonnes, while production of millet and sorghum is put at 9 million tonnes each. Some 1.5 million tonnes of barley are anticipated.
The country is in the middle of its dry season, but unusually abundant rains in early August resulted in floods and landslides, killing at least 60 people and leaving about 800 missing in the island of Nias, located about 1 325 km northwest of Jakarta. Five villages have been swept away and hundreds of homes damaged or destroyed.
Although early rainfall in July was beneficial for planting of the second rice crop in the main rice producing island of Java, there is uncertainty as to whether the development of the crop would be affected by the floods. The main rice crop will be planted from November to January to coincide with the north-east monsoon. Paddy production in year 2001 is provisionally forecast at about 50.2 million tonnes (31.6 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent), which compares with last year�s output of 51.9 million tonnes (32.7 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent). Coarse grain production, principally maize, is expected to be similar from the 9.2 million tonnes harvested last year, which was average.
Despite a satisfactory overall food situation, persistent conflicts and population displacements continue to cause food insecurity in the affected areas.
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (3 September)
Flash floods on 10 August 2001 hit the northeastern provinces of Golestan, Khorasan and Semnan, with an estimated 1.2 million people affected in Golestan, the worst affected province. The financial loss in the agriculture sector (including livestock) has been estimated at US $23 million, and about 752 000 hectares of agricultural land were seriously damaged. On 15 August the Government appealed for international assistance to cope with the disaster.
Meanwhile, the disastrous consequences of three consecutive years of drought continue to be felt in all sectors of the economy. A recent UN inter-agency report released in July estimated that about 90 percent of the population (urban, rural, and nomadic) have been severely affected. The shortage of water in rivers and the rapidly falling water tables have resulted in an acute scarcity of drinking water in both rural and urban areas. Large sections of the rural population and their livestock in the affected provinces have started migrating to other areas in search of water. An estimated 200 000 nomadic livestock owners are reported to have lost their only source of livelihood.
Tentative production figures for 2001 indicate a wheat output of 7.5 million tonnes compared to the past five-year average of 9.7 million tonnes. Production of barley, maize and paddy is also forecast to be below average.
Cereal production in 2001 is expected to be affected by drought, now in its third consecutive year, and inadequate availability of essential agricultural inputs, particularly in central and southern regions. Last year, an FAO/WFP/WHO Food Supply and Nutrition Assessment Mission found that in the most affected centre/south areas, not only were the plantings reduced, but also some 75 percent of the cropped area under wheat and barley was heavily damaged and mostly used as grazing for livestock. Cereal yields were reduced to all time low levels. As a result, total cereal production in 2000, estimated at some 796 000 tonnes, was about 47 percent below 1999 and 60 percent below the average of the previous 5 years.
Cereal imports under the SCR 986 oil-for-food deal have led to significant improvements in the food supply situation. However, long delays in the flow of food imports continue to be reported. Also, despite significant increases in the food ration since SCR 986, child malnutrition rates in the centre/south of the country do not appear to have improved significantly and nutritional problems remain serious and widespread.
Production of the 2001 wheat crop is anticipated to recover slightly from low production levels of recent years. Three consecutive years of drought have decimated cereal production, the bulk of which is wheat. Last year, wheat output totalled about 50 000 tonnes, about half of the previous five years average. Domestic production of wheat in normal years covers less than one-fifth of total requirement, the rest being imported commercially.
Imports of cereals in 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast at some 2.9 million tonnes.
A slow moving and powerful typhoon entered through southwestern Japan in the third week of August leaving behind flooded homes and disrupting air and sea traffic in various areas, particularly in the western city of Osaka, the second largest metropolitan area in the country. A small number of victims and damage to housing and infrastructure is reported.
The main harvest of rice will commence in October and extend through November. As part of the Government�s rice area adjustment programme, the planted area and consequent production are expected to decline from last year�s levels. Production in year 2001 is provisionally forecast at 10.8 million tonnes (7.9 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent) which compares to 11.9 million tonnes (8.6 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent) last year.
Wheat imports in 2001/02 marketing year (April/March) are forecast to be about 6 million tonnes, close to the volume imported in marketing year 2000/01.
Erratic rainfall and very high temperatures, about 10 degrees C above average, have severely affected the 2001 wheat, barley, vegetable and fruit production. The unusual spread of some plant pests, largely due to the heat wave, has also exacerbated the damage particularly on irrigated vegetable and fruit trees. This follows the severe drought in 1999 and 2000 that also seriously affected cereal and horticultural crops. The 2001 wheat crop is forecast at 13 000 tonnes, about 54 and 60 percent below last year�s reduced crop and the average for the previous five years respectively. Similarly, the barley crop, estimated at 17 000 tonnes, is about 77 percent below average. The livestock sector was also severely affected, with sheep farmers the hardest hit.
Harvesting is progressing well and FAO tentatively estimates the 2001 grains at 11.7 million tonnes from about 12.4 million hectares (2000: 11.6 million tonnes). Wheat production is expected to reach 9.2 million tonnes, about 109 000 tonnes higher than last year, while coarse grain output of 2.3 million tonnes is similar to last year�s estimates. Heavy rains in June and early July in the North, where 80 percent of the grains are grown, adversely affected yields.
Locusts, which had affected about 65 000 hectares of cropland in the Kustanay region, has had limited impact on crops this year. Crop disease and weather conditions, however, are still feared to impact crops and compromise the forecast output.
Cereal exports are expected to total about 4.65 million tonnes this year. Russian import demand due to better crops this year is expected to be low, while demands from the Central Asian CIS will remain high in the face of drought and low production.
KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (3 September)
Following the coldest winter in decades, DPR Korea was affected by a prolonged severe drought during spring this year. Subsequently, in late July and early August, a combination of heavy rainfall and lack of adequate drainage system resulted in floods in South Hwanghae province, one of the rice bowl provinces. In Yonan and Peachin Counties, the hardest hit areas, it was estimated that about half of the paddy fields were submerged for at least 3 days. In addition, by mid-August, more than 24 000 hectares of cultivated land were buried under water or silt when heavy rains hit coastal provinces of Kangwon and North Hamgyong, and more than 10 000 peoplelost their homes. Public buildings were also destroyed. The torrential rains and floods, following the prolonged drought, prompted expectations of sharp reductions in grain harvests, which will exacerbate the food insecurity the country already faces.
In June 2001, FAO and WFP jointly mounted a mid-year Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to DPR Korea, which found that spring rains had virtually failed in the period March to mid-June 2001. In many places, the drought lasted for 100 days, reportedly the longest spring drought in recorded history. This led to acute loss of soil moisture and depletion of reservoirs. The 2000/01 winter/spring crops of wheat, barley and potato were seriously affected. About 10 percent of planted area was estimated to have been abandoned, while yields on the remaining areas were well below normal. Wheat and barley yields dropped to 0.85 tonnes/hectare against the usual 2 tonnes/hectare, while potato yields were reduced to 3.77 tonnes/hectare against the recent past average of 10 tonnes/hectare. The aggregate production of winter/spring crops, estimated at 172 000 tonnes, were sharply below the expected output of 493 000 tonnes. Some 45 percent of the maize crop was affected by the drought, a significant proportion of the original plantings failed and two subsequent replantings had been necessary. The Mission observed unhealthy and uneven maize stands in many areas, pointing to unfavourable prospects for maize harvest in September. Early indications point to a poor production outlook this year. The outlook for the short to medium term remains bleak, reflecting significant shortfalls in fertilizers and agricultural chemical supplies, as well as a serious deterioration and aging of agricultural infrastructure, machinery and equipment. Until these constraints are overcome with adequate international assistance, the country will find it difficult to reverse the declining trends in agricultural productivity.
As a result of the production loss in winter/spring crops, the October 2000 Mission production estimate of 2.92 million tonnes (in cereal equivalent) had to be revised down to 2.57 million tonnes. Taking into account the cereal imports contracted and food aid already delivered or pledged, the Mission concluded that DPR Korea still faces a significant uncovered food deficit of 564 000 tonnes for the remaining four months of the 2000/01 marketing year. Notwithstanding the significant food deficit in the current marketing year, the Mission viewed with some concern the outlook for food supplies for the next year. Given unfavourable prospects for the main harvest in October, a large volume of food aid and concessional imports will again be required in 2002. Any significant shortfall in the mobilization of such assistance would pose a threat of a deepening food crisis in the country next year.
Another FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is expected to be fielded shortly to update the country�s food security situation and determine the amount of food assistance required following the devastating rains and flooding in August and final outcome from the prolonged drought in the spring.
KOREA, REPUBLIC OF (4 September)
Harvesting of the 2001 paddy crop is due to start from October and extend through November. Heavy rains in mid-July resulted in floods and landslides, leaving a number of victims and damage to housing and infrastructure. The rains were most severe in the capital, Seoul, and came after months of the worst drought on record. A detailed assessment of damage has not been made available yet, but according to official sources some 1 600 hectares of rice fields were flooded. Despite the damage, an average paddy output of 7.2 million tonnes (5.3 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent) is anticipated this year. Average maize and barley outputs are also provisionally estimated.
KYRGYZ REPUBLIC (10 September)
Drought and water shortages have had less impact in Kyrgyzstan compared with other countries of the region, thanks mainly to upstream benefits from rivers supplying the whole region with irrigation water. FAO tentatively forecasts grain output at 1.57 million tonnes, about the same as last year�s good crop, including 1 million tonnes of wheat 160 000 tonnes of barley and 375 000 tonnes of maize.
Though grain production this year is 175 000 tonnes less than target (1.7 million tonnes), the overall food supply situation is seen to remain satisfactory. Access to food by the poorest strata of the population is expected to remain tight, due to continuous lack of purchasing power and sources of livelihoods. However, food price index for the first half of this year remained stable and on a slightly declining trend compared with previous year.
Harvesting of the wet season paddy crop is due to start from October. Early production forecasts indicate an output of some 2.2 million tonnes (1.3 million tonnes in milled equivalent) which is close to last year�s above-average volume. Wet paddy is predominantly grown in the lowland of the Mekong River basin while a smaller low performing monsoon crop is cultivated in the uplands. With emphasis given to food production and self- sufficiency, the area planted to wet season rice (upland and lowland) has seen a 17 percent increase since 1996/97 from 535 000 hectares to 630 000 hectares.
Flooding which occurs frequently during the wet season is the main risk to lowland monsoon cultivation. Although the rice supply is satisfactory in 2001, the food situation still remains precarious households affected by floods last year, when 43 000 hectares of the 520 000 hectares of lowland paddy were entirely lost to the floods.
The output of 2001 wheat and barley, estimated at 69 000 tonnes, is about average. Imports of wheat in 2000/01 (July/June) are forecast at some 0.5 million tonnes.
Normal to above-normal rainfall in July has been registered in most parts of the Peninsula; however, below-normal rains are reported in some parts of north Johore, northwest Perak, south Terengganu, the northern parts of Kedah and Perlis and east Negeri Sembilan. These dry areas received less than 20 mm of rain, insufficient to meet all agricultural needs. Most areas in the Peninsula recorded 6 to 8 raindays while less than 5 raindays were reported for some areas. Planting of the main paddy crop is underway for harvesting from December. The country produces an average of 2.1 million tonnes of paddy annually, of which 60 percent is from the main and 40 percent from the off season crop. Production in 2001/02 is forecast at 2.3 million tonnes (1.5 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent) which compares to the average 2.1 million tonnes collected in 2000/01. Normally a third of domestic consumption of rice are imported. Practically all wheat and maize requirements are imported. Production of maize should increase slightly from the previous year�s bumper crop of 1.4 million tonnes, but maize imports in 2001/02 marketing year (July/June) are expected nevertheless to rise due to the gradual recovery of the local poultry sector.
Harvesting of the 2001 wheat crop, virtually the only cereal produced in the country, planted under poor weather conditions in April/May has started. Production is forecast at a slightly below-average 190 000 tonnes, close to the output in year 2000. Overall, production has declined progressively, largely as a result of persistent adverse weather conditions, structural changes in the economy and lack of an integrated farming system. The area under cultivation, yields and aggregate output have decreased appreciably. Latest estimates indicate that the area planted to wheat, the main staple, declined from 325 000 hectares in 1996 to about 290 000 hectares in 2001, whilst production in the same period declined from 215 000 tonnes to 190 000 tonnes. The combined effect of the second consecutive severe winter and the underlying problems in the agricultural sector is likely to increase dependency on international food assistance. A UN/Government appeal for international assistance was launched last January to assist drought affected people in 73 counties.
Harvesting of the main (monsoon) paddy crop, planted in May under favourable conditions, is due to start from late September and should continue until November.
The monsoon paddy crop normally accounts for about 85 percent of aggregate production, the remaining 15 percent coming from the second or dry season crop, which is planted in October/November for harvest the following April/May. Production of paddy in year 2001 is forecast at about 20.6 million tonnes (13.1 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent), some 500 000 tonnes above the near-record output in year 2000. Maize production is provisionally estimated at 300 000 tonnes.
Incessant heavy monsoon rains since June, resulting in flash floods and landslides, have killed at least 200 people across the country. Serious damage has been incurred to housing and rural infrastructure. The floods have swamped paddy fields, damaged irrigation canals and washed away roads in various parts. Flash floods and landslides in the country are common where the Hymalayan foothills are fast losing their forest cover because of increased pressure from a growing population.
Planting of the 2001 paddy crop has only been completed. Harvest is due from November and production is tentatively forecast at a slightly above-average output of some 4.1 million tonnes (2.7 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent), similar to the output in the previous year. Harvesting of the year 2001 maize crop is underway and production is also provisionally forecast to be about average, at 1.4 million tonnes.
Moderate to heavy monsoon rains started in the last weeks of June and early July, particularly in the northeastern parts of Punjab and Kashmir; however, in the last dekad of July torrential rains fell in Potohar, the North-West Frontier Province and other northern areas. The resulting floods left a number of victims and hundreds of people homeless. Emergency assistance was provided by the Government in the affected areas.
Following the widespread rains, major activities at present include transplantation of paddy and the start of the harvesting operations of the 2001 maize crop. The effects of the rain on fieldcrops (maize, paddy, sugar cane, groundnuts, fruit) has been beneficial and yields are satisfactory.
The rains brought relief to the country after a prolonged drought. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission from 23 May to 18 June 2001 found that rainfall was between 50 and 80 percent below normal in most parts of the country during the last winter cropping season (January-March). Last year�s Monsoon rainfall (July-September) was also more than 40 percent below normal. Consequently, rainfed agriculture and vegetation in the grazing lands were severely affected.
Rainfed wheat production, estimated at about 541 000 tonnes this year, is nearly 70 percent below the average of the last five years and 62 percent below last year�s reduced crop. However, as more than 90 percent of wheat production is irrigated, the overall impact of the drought is not great, though still significant. The Mission estimated total wheat production (irrigated and rainfed) this year at 18.735 million tonnes, which compares with 21 million tonnes last year. The 2001 rice crop, planted from May for harvest in October/November, is forecast at a reduced 3.9 million tonnes (milled) due to water shortages in irrigation schemes, and compares to 4.8 million tonnes in year 2000 and the average of 4.6 million tonnes for the last five years. With additional coarse grains crop of about 1.9 million tonnes, total cereal production in 2001/02 is, therefore, estimated at nearly 24.6 million tonnes.
From a national perspective, overall supplies will be just sufficient to meet the consumption requirements in 2001/02 marketing year. Domestic consumption and other utilization requirements are expected to be met from current production and drawdown of large wheat stocks from last year�s good crop. Some exports of wheat due to earlier contracts are also forecast. Rice exports are anticipated to be lower than last year�s volume of 2 million tonnes. However, the prolonged drought has seriously eroded the food security of a large number of farmers, particularly in Balochistan, parts of Sindh and Cholistan in Punjab.
Tens of thousands of villagers have returned to their homes following the cessation of volcanic activity which started in late June and forced them to flee.
In early July, typhoon �Feira�(Utor) killed 121 people, injured some 130 and left 44 missing. The typhoon displaced close to 900 000 people and caused serious damage to housing and infrastructure. Some 175 000 families were affected and vast agricultural areas planted to rice and maize were flooded. One of the worst affected areas was Baguio City, where the central business district and residential areas were in knee-to-waist deep water levels. Other seriously affected areas were the Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon and Metro Manila. Widespread and indiscriminate logging and inadequate drainage system reportedly contribute to flooding. A detailed assessment of damage to crops and livestock is not yet available.
By mid-August, torrential rains and floods submerged dozens of villages particularly in the Negros Occidental province and the island of Mindanao, the country�s largest maize producing area. A number of casualties is reported. More than 60 000 people had to flee their homes for emergency shelter. Serious damage to crops, housing and infrastructure is reported.
Planting of this year�s main rice and maize crops was completed in July for harvesting from November. Despite flood damage, early production forecasts point to an above-average paddy output of some 12.5 million tonnes (8.2 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent) and a slightly below-average maize output of about 4.1 million tonnes.
Production of wheat in 2001 is forecast at 1.8 million tonnes, similar to last year, which together with stocks, will be sufficient to cover the country's requirements. The Government-guaranteed purchase price for wheat produced by wheat farmers remains at US$400 per tonne. With an annual barley production of about 200 000 tonnes, Saudi Arabia remains the world�s largest importer of barley, accounting for nearly one-third of the world barley trade. Total imports of cereals in 2001/02 (July/June) is currently estimated at 6.2 million tonnes, including about 5 million tonnes of barley.
A prolonged severe drought, the worst drought reportedly in half a century, is affecting about 1.5 million people in 7 of the 25 districts in the country. The Hambantota district in the Southern Province and one of the poorest in the country is the worst affected followed by Kurunegala, Puttlam, Monaragala, Badulla, Ratnapura and Ampara but to a lesser extent. A rapid assessment of the situation in Hambantota district shows that about 55 000 families are suffering the consequences of the drought. Paddy is the main crop grown in the district, principally in the lowlands where both major and minor irrigation schemes are used. Other crops such as chillies, green gram, groundnut, cowpea and maize are also grown in both the low lands and highlands. Due to the severe drought about 14 355 hectares of lowlands and 53 000 hectares of highlands have been abandoned since the past Yala (dry) 2000 season. In the Yala season, crops are planted between April and May for harvesting in August and September. Even major irrigation schemes, such as Walawa and Lunugamwehera, are seriously affected. Damage to livestock is also reported. The population is also facing serious water shortages for drinking and other domestic uses. Certain relief measures, including the distribution of rice (50 kg/family) has recently been initiated by the authorities.
Rains are expected in the coming Maha (wet) season, when crops are planted between October and November for harvesting in March, but many of the affected farmers will not be in a position to secure the required inputs due to the lack of cash income.
As a consequence of the drastic drop in food availability and cash income for rural households, an adequate diet is not possible for a large majority of the affected people. A local FAO assessment to determine rehabilitation requirements of the affected farmers is being conducted at present. So far, no appeal for international assistance has been made by the Government.
Three consecutive years of drought have severely affected crop and livestock production. Rainfall this year is reported to have been better than last year but pockets still remain where the rains were not enough to offset the moisture deficit in the soil.
In 1999 and 2000 a severe drought decimated cereal crops and led to a significant increase in sheep mortality rates that seriously affected household incomes. Latest reports put the 2000 wheat production at 3.1 million tonnes, about 15 percent above the previous year�s reduced crop but 9 percent below average. Barley production, which is almost entirely rainfed, is estimated at 213 000 tonnes, about 74 percent below the previous five-year average.
Drought, water shortages, dilapidated irrigation system and structural problems have worsened the food supply situation this year compared to last year when a large food deficit was experienced and food supply remained very tight throughout the year. The two main rivers, Amu and Syr, feeding the extensive irrigation system of the country, have been flowing at about 50 percent of the average levels. Precipitation levels are estimated to be about 60 percent of the average annual levels, in particular during the crucial months of March and April for wheat crop cycle. Agricultural inputs, quality seeds and fertilizers, are in short supply and generally inaccessible to grain crops. Agricultural machinery is also in short supply and inadequate to meet demand. In addition, about 40-50 percent of the water lifting equipment and about 60 percent of the heavy machinery used for canal and drainage maintenance are out of order, which have significantly compromised the efficacy and efficiency of the irrigation system.
An FAO/WFP joint Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) that visited the country between June and July 2001, estimated the total cereal production at 303 000 tonnes compared with 355 000 tonnes in 2000. Wheat output, the main staple crop, is estimated at 233 000 tonnes this year compared with 283 000 tonnes last year and 366 000 tonnes in 1999.
Cereal import requirement (mainly wheat) for 2001/02 marketing year (July/June) is estimated at 788 000 tonnes. The uncovered food aid requirement is estimated at 345 000 tonnes, after taking into account a projected commercial import capacity of 400 000 tonnes and pledged food aid of 43 000 tonnes. Food deficit of this magnitude for an impoverished population, if not addressed, would have dire consequences. Due to a similar situation last year and lack of alternative sources of income, many households have exhausted their coping strategies and will need emergency food assistance in the ensuing year.
WFP has been providing emergency food assistance to 1.6 million people under vulnerable group feeding (910 000 people) and food for asset rehabilitation (250 000 people) programmes since October 2000. The current EMOP is expected to come to an end by December 2001 by then a total of 72 468 tonnes of wheat flour, 2 050 tonnes of vegetable oil, 1 200 tonnes of pulses and 700 tonnes of salt would have been distributed.
Torrential monsoon rains and floods since the second week of August are reported to have killed 170 people, displaced more than 6 660 villagers and devastated thousands of village homes and country roads. The north-central province of Phetchabun has been the most affected area, where more than 125 people died, followed by Udon Thani, in the north-east, and Chiang Mai in the north. Emergency assistance from the Government and international organizations is being provided.
The rains affected about 200 000 hectares of farmland, but had no effect on the 2001/02 crop currently being planted. Harvesting will start from November and preliminary forecasts indicate paddy output at 24.1 million tonnes (16 million tonnes in milled equivalent), close to the 2000/01 crop. The country is the largest world rice exporter, and exports of 6.6 million tonnes in 2001/02 marketing year (November/October) are forecast.
The output of the 2001 wheat crop, estimated at about 15 million tonnes, is about 17 percent below last year due to unfavourable weather in parts. However, normal rains in maize growing areas have allowed for an estimated output of about 2.0 million tonnes, similar to the average of the previous five years. Wheat imports in 2001/02 are forecast at about 1.5 million tonnes and maize imports at 950 000 tonnes.
Regional drought and irrigation water shortages for two years in succession are seen to result in significantly lower crop production this year than in 2000. Official estimates put winter wheat at 2 million tonnes from an area of 775 000 hectares, respectively about 17 percent and 10 percent higher than last year. The increase in area is not matched by similar reduction in official estimates of area under other crops such as cotton or virgin lands coming under cultivation. In addition, reservoirs fed by the Amu Darya, providing nearly 90 percent of the country�s irrigation needs, have been significantly lower than the previous year, while the Murghab river supplying irrigation water to Mary province have been virtually dry for most part of the cropping season this year.
FAO, therefore, tentatively forecasts grain output at about 1.5 million tonnes, similar to its estimates of 2000, including 1.4 million tonnes of wheat, 50 000 tonnes of barley, 20 000 tonnes of maize and 20 000 tonnes of rice. Grain production kept pace with last year due to some increase in area under wheat. The worst affected areas are once again Mary province (bordering Iran and Afghanistan) and Dashagouz (bordering Karaklpakstan region of Uzbekistan). The cereal import requirement for 2000/01 is estimated at about 40 000 tonnes. Despite preliminary reports on food shortages and concerns over the tight food supply situation in the country, the government has not appealed for any international assistance.
Severe water shortages and drought two years in succession have significantly impacted crop production. Water flows in the two main sources of irrigation, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers are reported to be about 40 percent of the average flows, while record hot and dry weather conditions have increased demand for irrigation water. In addition, the available scarce water is reported to be contaminated with high levels of salinity.
Latest reports confirm that this year�s total grain output would not be more than 3.4 million tonnes, about 500 000 tonnes less than the poor harvest of last year and about one million tonnes less than in 1999 when production was considered average. Wheat production is estimated at 3.2 million tonnes and rice at 100 000 tonnes, which compares with 1999 production levels of 3.6 million tonnes of wheat and 421 000 tonnes of rice. The worst affected areas are Karakalpakstan and Khorzam autonomous regions, where the spring-sown area and output have fallen by half. Cotton, the main export crop, is seen to fall far short of the official target output of 3.9 million tonnes (cottonseed).
The import requirement in 2001/02 is tentatively estimated at about 0.9 million tonnes, roughly 293 000 tonnes higher than the preceding year�s imports. The government has appealed for international assistance in the rehabilitation of the irrigation systems, desalinisation equipment and targeted food aid in some areas. UNOCHA estimates that nearly 600 000 people particularly in Karakalpakstan and Khorzam may face food shortages unless assisted. An FAO/WFP joint mission in October 2000 found that 45 000 people in Karakalpakstan alone had experienced severe food shortages.
Torrential seasonal and typhoon rains during the first half of August resulted in heavy flooding and landslides, particularly in the Ha Tinh province in the north central coast, leaving a number of casualties and thousands homeless. The floods also destroyed thousands of acres of paddy and other crops in this province as well as in Nghe An and Quang Binh. By the end of August, heavy floods in the country�s Mekong Delta and Central Highlands had forced thousands to evacuate their homes; however, no damage was inflicted to the summer/autumn paddy crop as harvesting was virtually complete in the main growing provinces. No damage was caused either to the coffee crop grown in the highlands. The floods, however, are likely to disrupt planting of the Delta third season crop. Much will depend on the performance of September rains.
Planting of the tenth month paddy crop continues after some disruption caused by the heavy rains in the north. The 2001 paddy crop is currently forecast at 31.8 million tonnes, slightly below last year�s output but nevertheless above the average of the last 5 years.
It is reported that the Government decided to cut its export target of rice to 3.5 million tonnes from a previous 4 million tonnes as a result of the lower domestic output and unattractive prices. The lower output is principally due to farmers who have shifted part of their land to other more attractive crops.
Heavy rains and floods in late-July resulted in loss of life and caused severe damage to agricultural production and infrastructure. Provinces that are particularly affected include Hajah, Hadramout, Dhamar, Ibb and Sa�ada. The 2001 sorghum and millet crop, about to be harvested, was developing normally before the floods.
Total cereal output in 2000 is estimated at 700 000 tonnes, similar to the average for the previous five years.
The Desert Locust situation remains calm but few locusts may be present and breeding with recent winter rains along the Red Sea coastal plains.