FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 09/01 - KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (3 September)

KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (3 September)

Following the coldest winter in decades, DPR Korea was affected by a prolonged severe drought during spring this year. Subsequently, in late July and early August, a combination of heavy rainfall and lack of adequate drainage system resulted in floods in South Hwanghae province, one of the rice bowl provinces. In Yonan and Peachin Counties, the hardest hit areas, it was estimated that about half of the paddy fields were submerged for at least 3 days. In addition, by mid-August, more than 24 000 hectares of cultivated land were buried under water or silt when heavy rains hit coastal provinces of Kangwon and North Hamgyong, and more than 10 000 peoplelost their homes. Public buildings were also destroyed. The torrential rains and floods, following the prolonged drought, prompted expectations of sharp reductions in grain harvests, which will exacerbate the food insecurity the country already faces.

In June 2001, FAO and WFP jointly mounted a mid-year Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to DPR Korea, which found that spring rains had virtually failed in the period March to mid-June 2001. In many places, the drought lasted for 100 days, reportedly the longest spring drought in recorded history. This led to acute loss of soil moisture and depletion of reservoirs. The 2000/01 winter/spring crops of wheat, barley and potato were seriously affected. About 10 percent of planted area was estimated to have been abandoned, while yields on the remaining areas were well below normal. Wheat and barley yields dropped to 0.85 tonnes/hectare against the usual 2 tonnes/hectare, while potato yields were reduced to 3.77 tonnes/hectare against the recent past average of 10 tonnes/hectare. The aggregate production of winter/spring crops, estimated at 172 000 tonnes, were sharply below the expected output of 493 000 tonnes. Some 45 percent of the maize crop was affected by the drought, a significant proportion of the original plantings failed and two subsequent replantings had been necessary. The Mission observed unhealthy and uneven maize stands in many areas, pointing to unfavourable prospects for maize harvest in September. Early indications point to a poor production outlook this year. The outlook for the short to medium term remains bleak, reflecting significant shortfalls in fertilizers and agricultural chemical supplies, as well as a serious deterioration and aging of agricultural infrastructure, machinery and equipment. Until these constraints are overcome with adequate international assistance, the country will find it difficult to reverse the declining trends in agricultural productivity.

As a result of the production loss in winter/spring crops, the October 2000 Mission production estimate of 2.92 million tonnes (in cereal equivalent) had to be revised down to 2.57 million tonnes. Taking into account the cereal imports contracted and food aid already delivered or pledged, the Mission concluded that DPR Korea still faces a significant uncovered food deficit of 564 000 tonnes for the remaining four months of the 2000/01 marketing year. Notwithstanding the significant food deficit in the current marketing year, the Mission viewed with some concern the outlook for food supplies for the next year. Given unfavourable prospects for the main harvest in October, a large volume of food aid and concessional imports will again be required in 2002. Any significant shortfall in the mobilization of such assistance would pose a threat of a deepening food crisis in the country next year.

Another FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is expected to be fielded shortly to update the country�s food security situation and determine the amount of food assistance required following the devastating rains and flooding in August and final outcome from the prolonged drought in the spring.