In the EC, rain showers and warm temperatures in late August and early September have been favourable for the summer maize crop but caused some disruptions to small grains harvesting, which is still not complete in some parts, particularly in the north. Latest information continues to point to a smaller aggregate cereal harvest for the Community in 2001 of 204 million tonnes, compared to 217 million tonnes last year. Total wheat production is now estimated at about 92.6 million tonnes, 5 million tonnes down from the 97 million tonnes forecast before the summer, and 13 million tonnes less than the 2000 crop. The bulk of the decrease in wheat output has occurred in France, the United Kingdom, Spain and Italy due to a combination of reduced plantings and adverse weather. With regard to coarse grains, the forecast of the Community�s aggregate output in 2001 has been revised upward slightly over the past two months, to about 109 million tonnes, similar to the previous year�s level. The latest revision mostly reflects the relatively favourable weather conditions for the summer maize crops in recent weeks. The good yield prospects for maize, and the increased area sown are expected to lead to an almost 5 percent increase in maize output, while outputs of barley and oats are expected to be down this year.
Cereal production in 2001 is tentatively estimated to remain around 550 000 to 600 000 tonnes, similar to the previous year and the normal level over the past few years. Given the currently limited returns available to farmers for cereals, investment in agriculture is being directed to more lucrative non-cereal crops and fluctuations in cereal area and production tend to be influenced mostly by weather factors. The 2000/01 season has been relatively favourable for cereal crops.
Harvesting of spring grains is well underway and output is set to surpass last year�s levels. FAO tentatively forecasts grain production at 5 million tonnes, about 200 000 tonnes more than last year�s estimates. Grain output mainly comprises of barley, rye, wheat and oats, 1.75, 1.5, 0.75 and 0.6 million tonnes, respectively. Official forecasts, however, put grain output at 6 million tonnes, which is not supported by the area, yield and input supply data.
Cereal imports, mainly from the CIS, is seen at 691 000 tonnes this year compared with 734 000 tonnes in 2000/01 marketing year. Wheat imports account for nearly 80 percent of the total cereal imports.
BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA* (3 September)
May floods and hail in northern region of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the adjacent areas of Republica Serbska damaged large areas of crops and livelihoods. An FAO mission to north-eastern region was fielded late July to assess the damages caused by floods and hail. The worst affected areas were Tuzla, Zenica, Doboj, Posavina and Brcko. More than 14 640 households have been affected by floods, while crop damages in the affected areas range between 15 and 35 percent of the cropped area. FAO, therefore, forecasts cereal production for 2001 at 924 000 tonnes similar to the drought affected production levels of the preceding year. The overall effect on grain production is limited because the floods partially affected maize, while wheat was severely affected but is not the major crop in the affected region.
Cereal import in 2001/02 is expected to remain at 2000/01 levels, 290 000 tonnes including 100 000 tonnes in food aid.
The 2001 cereal crop has increased in Bulgaria reflecting an increase in plantings and an improvement in weather conditions compared to 2000. Nevertheless, the weather throughout the season remained very variable across the country and generally far from favourable, especially in the major producing areas. The 2001 wheat output is now tentatively estimated at about 3.5 million tonnes: although harvested area has undoubtedly increased compared to 2000, yields are reported to be very varied across regions leading to some uncertainty over the level of the country�s aggregate crop. Regarding the summer maize crop, there is uncertainty over the final area to be harvested after drought wiped out some areas again this year but, overall, final output could be slightly up from last year at about 1.1 million tonnes.
Preliminary estimates indicate that cereal output in 2001 will improve from a drought-reduced harvest the previous year. Heavy rains in June affected wheat crop and the current estimates show that output may not exceed 912 000 tonnes down from the 2000 estimate of 929 000 tonnes. Cereal output, however, is estimated at 3 million tonnes compared to 2.6 million tonnes in 2000. Maize output is expected to increase by 700 000 tonnes this year compared with 2000. Grain exports are seen at 185 000 tonnes (2000: 50 000 tonnes), including 15 000 tonnes of wheat and 170 000 tonnes of maize.
The 2001 cereal harvest in the Czech Republic is estimated to reach 7.2 million tonnes in 2001, about 12 percent up from last year and the largest crop since 1991. Increased plantings and generally favourable weather conditions through the growing season are the main reasons for the increase. However, the full impact of heavy rains and storms during the harvest period is not yet known and apart from some likely impact on the quality of this year�s grain crops the final output estimate may be reduced somewhat in the coming weeks.
The outlook for 2001-grain harvest is satisfactory and expected to match the good harvest of the preceding year. Grain output is estimated at 0.6 million tonnes (similar to 2000) including 140 000 tonnes of wheat 275 000 tonnes of barley and 100 000 tonnes of oats. Cereal import in 2001/02 marketing year is seen at 197 000 tonnes (2000: 253 000 tonnes), including 140 000 tonnes of wheat and 40 000 tonnes of barley.
FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA (10 September)
In the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, continuing dry weather in 2001 has reduced cereal output further from last year�s already low level. Aggregate output could fall well below 500 000 tonnes with wheat accounting for about 200 000 tonnes, barley 100 000 tonnes and maize 100 000 tonnes.
Cereal output in Hungary has recovered significantly after last year�s drought. Wheat production is now estimated at about 5 million tonnes, compared to 3.7 million tonnes in 2000. However, it is reported that a period of heavy rainfall during harvest has brought down the quality of much of this year�s crop and the percentage of feed wheat in the overall harvest is larger than normal. The summer rainfall was very beneficial for the maize crop, however, and the maize output this year is expected to exceed 7 million tonnes, after a reduced crop of less than 5 million tonnes last year. In aggregate the 2001 cereal output is expected to be about 14 million tonnes, one of the largest crops in the past decade.
Good precipitation both in winter and spring provided favourable conditions for crop production. FAO tentatively forecasts grain output at 909 000 tonnes from an area of 420 000 hectares, similar to 2000 estimates. Cereal output this year includes 390 000 tonnes of wheat, 270 000 tonnes of barley and 120 000 tonnes of rye. Cereal import requirement in 2001/02 marketing year is estimated at 45 000 tonnes, similar to the preceding year and half of the imports in 1999/00. Cereal imports are mainly of food quality.
The outlook for 2001 harvest is satisfactory, thanks to adequate precipitation and soil moisture. Grain output is estimated at 2.7 million tonnes, similar to the amount harvested in 2000. Wheat and barley this year account for 2 million tonnes of the total grains, while rye output is 450 000 followed by 90 000 tonnes of pulses and 85 000 tonnes of oats. Exports are estimated to remain at last year�s levels, 110 000 tonnes, mainly wheat (100 000 tonnes) and barely (10 000 tonnes).
Prospects for grain production this year are satisfactory and set to reach 2.6 million tonnes, some 600 000 tonnes higher than the preceding year. Total grains include more than 1 million tonnes of wheat, 1.2 million tonnes of maize and 260 000 tonnes of barley.
Polish cereal production has recovered significantly in 2001 after last year�s reduced crop reflecting favourable weather conditions, which allowed a return to normal yields. The total wheat crop is estimated at 9.4 million tonnes, some 10 percent up from 2000. The country�s important rye crop has also recovered significantly to over 5 million tonnes, compared to just 4 million tonnes last year, and barley output is put 29 percent up at about 3.6 million tonnes . In aggregate, total cereal production is estimated at about 26 million tonnes, some 16 percent up from 2000 and above the average of the past five years
Cereal production in 2001 has recovered significantly from the severely drought reduced crop last year. The latest official estimate puts the total 2001 wheat crop at 7.8 million tonnes, more than 3 million tonnes up from 2000 as a result of increased plantings as well as much more favourable weather conditions. Some unofficial sources indicate that the wheat crop may not be quite this large but nevertheless all sources quote figures representing an increase of at least 50 percent from the previous year. The summer maize crop has again been affected by dry conditions, which set-in from early July. However, apart from the most affected areas in southeastern parts of the country, the damage has not been as large as last year when drought affected the entire cropping season. Unofficial estimates put the maize crop at about 6 to 7 million tonnes this year compared to just 4.2 million tonnes in 2000. Given the current outlook for supply and demand in the 2001/02 marketing year Romania is not expected to import significant quantities of cereals have could have some exportable surplus of wheat, barley and maize.
RUSSIAN FEDERATION (7 September)
Spring harvesting is well underway and proceeding at a significantly faster rate compared to last year. FAO forecasts for this year�s grain harvest stands at about 74 million tonnes, some 3 million tonnes higher than the preceding year (2000: 71 million tonnes). Favourable growing conditions with adequate soil moistures for both spring and winter crops have contributed to higher yields, in particular in the Central Regions and Volga river basin. Given that favourable weather conditions persist and adequate harvesting machinery is available, it is likely that the forecast grain output from nearly 48 million hectares of planted area will be achieved (2000: 46 million hectares under grains). Floods and torrential rains in parts of Siberia and the Far Eastern regions have caused hardship and damage to property but is unlikely to affect the overall level of grain production.
Grain prices have continued to fall during the past few months, confirming the outlook for a better harvest. Cereal imports are seen to decline to 2.4 million tonnes in 2001/02 marketing year (1999/00: 8.4 million tonnes) due to lower domestic prices and better harvests. Cereal export, mainly wheat and barley, is expected to reach 1.53 million tonnes in 2001/02 marketing year (1999/00: 0.64 million tonnes).
Civil strife in Chechnya continues to disrupt life and crop production. Conflict-affected and displaced persons in Chechnya and Ingushetia depend on WFP and NGOs for basic and complementary food assistance. WFP has provided about 20,500 tonnes of food commodities to 268,000 people in both the republics between January and August 2001.
SLOVAK REPUBLIC (10 September)
Cereal output in the Slovak Republic is expected to recover completely from last year�s drought-affected low level. The bulk of the harvest was reported to be completed by late August, and aggregate cereal output is expected to reach almost 3 million tonnes. Of the total, wheat is expected to account for about 2 million tonnes.
Cereal production in 2001 has recovered after the affects of drought in the previous year. Wheat output is estimated at about 135 000 tonnes, of which about 120 000 tonnes is expected to be milling quality.
Grain harvesting is nearly complete, except for maize and in the Western regions of the country. FAO tentatively forecasts this year�s grain output at 31 million tonnes, nearly 8 million tonnes more than FAO's estimates for 2000. The 2001 forecast includes 18 million tonnes of wheat, 6.6 million tonnes of barley and 3 million tonnes of maize. However, the final estimate will depend on the progress of harvests, weather conditions and maize production. Early reports indicate that due to cool, rainy weather in May-June and excessively hot weather in July, maize output may be significantly lower than expected. Official estimates this year show total grain output at about 35 million tonnes with an average yield of 2.99 tonnes per hectare (2000: 1.99 tonnes/ha).
Given that the production targets materialize, cereal exports in 2001/02 could reach nearly 5 million tonnes (2000/01: 1.7 million tonnes), while imports are expected to decline from about 880 000 tonnes in 2000/01 to 150 000 tonnes in 2001/02 marketing year.
YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (5 September)
An FAO/WFP joint crop and food supply assessment mission visited Serbia during the last week of June 2001. Agricultural production during the 2000/01 cropping season has witnessed a sharp recovery from a record low level last year. Optimal planting, availability of fuel and other farm inputs, a mild winter, widespread rains in spring and early summer as well as a virtually insect, pest and disease-free year have contributed to the sharp recovery of crop production this year. FAO estimates grain production this year at about 8.8 million tonnes (2000: 5.2 million tonnes), including 2.9 million tonnes of wheat and 5.5 million tonnes of maize. On average wheat yields increased by about 1 tonne per hectare to 3.8 tonnes compared with 2000 yields, while maize yields on average increased from 3.15 tonnes per hectare in 2000 to 4.5 tonnes per hectares in 2001.
Given the current domestic cereal utilization and production, an estimated surplus of about 700 000 tonnes will be available for exports, including 400 000 tonnes of wheat and 300 000 tonnes of maize. The government has authorized the export of about 115 150 tonnes of wheat and 150 000 tonne of maize for the second half of 2001.
WFP is providing food assistance to 575 000 beneficiaries, comprising of 215 000 refugees and 360 000 social cases. Following a joint WFP/UNHCR food needs assessment mission this year, the strategy is to continuously phase out food assistance programme by the end of 2002. The UNHCR and ECHO fresh food programmes will soon phase out, while the ICRC Kitchen Soup program was to be handed over to the Serbian Red Cross in July 2001.