FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 09/01 - SOUTH AFRICA (3 September)

The heaviest rains in nearly 50 years during July and August in the Western Cape province resulted in floods in urban areas of Cape Town, several of which were declared disaster areas in late August. The Government has allocated funds to assist about 18 000 affected people and food and non-food aid is being distributed by humanitarian agencies among the displaced population. The abundant rains have not damaged the wheat crop to be harvested from October.

Latest estimates of the recently harvested maize crop indicate an output of 7.2 million tonnes, against last year’s above-average output of 10.1 million tonnes. The decline reflects a decrease of 17 percent in the area planted and lower yields due to a prolonged mid-season dry spell. However, grain quality is reported to be high. Prices of maize are reported to have increase 40 percent between May and July reflecting the reduced harvest. There are concerns among millers over the declining demand for maize meal following the price rise.

At the estimated production level, and taking into account carry-over stocks of 2.1 million tonnes, maize availability for export is estimated around 1.27 million tonnes. At this level, stocks will be drawn down to a level of 750 000 tonnes at the end of the marketing year (May/April). The final amount of exports will depend on the country’s desired level of carryover stocks. The projected level of exports is insufficient to cover this year’s increased maize import needs in the sub-region and part of the requirement may need to be imported from overseas.

The early outlook for the wheat crop to be harvested from next month is satisfactory following abundant irrigation water supplies. Preliminary forecasts point to an average crop of 2.2 million tonnes, slightly higher than last year’s level.