As a result of an expansion of 13 percent in the area planted, generally favourable weather and increased distribution of agricultural inputs, the 2001 cereal production was estimated by an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission last May at 581 000 tonnes, 15 percent higher than in the previous year. The increase in the area planted reflected a relative improvement in the security situation which allowed progress in allocating land to internally displaced people (IDPs) within secure areas. Maize output was estimated at 429 000 tonnes, 9 percent above the level of 2000. Millet and sorghum production rose by almost one-third to 148 000 tonnes. The cassava crop also increased significantly. By contrast, bean output declined by 10 percent as a result of dry spells in northern areas.
The cereal import requirement in the 2001/02 marketing year (April/March) has decreased from the previous year to 581 000 tonnes of cereals, including 176 000 tonnes of food aid. Despite the improvement in domestic production, the food supply situation remains difficult for 2.7 million IDPs. While large numbers have been allocated land, very few have been able to return to their original homes. Movement of persons and goods continues to be restricted due to persistent insecurity and landmines. The FAO/WFP Mission estimated that about 1.34 million of IDPs were still in need of food aid. However, pledges until today fall well below requirements. WFP estimates that if more pledges are not received within a month, food aid supplies will run out towards the end of the year. Renewed fighting in early September in several areas, particularly the northern province of Lunda-Sul and the southern provinces of Benguela and Huambo, has also exacerbated the already precarious food supply situation.
Production of cereals in 2001, is estimated at 10 000 tonnes, mostly sorghum. This is half of last year's crop, and markedly below average, reflecting a prolonged dry spell form late December to early February. Yields were seriously affected in most growing areas with total crop failure in parts. However, even in normal years, the country imports most of its cereal needs.
Import requirements in marketing year 2001/02 (April/March) are estimated at 263 000 tonnes, including 197 000 tonnes of coarse grains and 66 000 tonnes of wheat. While these requirements are expected to be covered on commercial basis, food difficulties are anticipated at household level in areas affected by severe crop loss.
As a result of unfavourable weather, the 2001 cereal production was sharply reduced. Frost in early January, which severely damaged crops, was followed by a prolonged dry spell from mid-January, a heat wave and a hailstorm in parts. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission that visited the country last May estimated the 2001 cereal production at 80 000 tonnes, 47 percent lower than in the previous year and 60 percent below the average of the past five years. Maize output was estimated at 58 000 tonnes while wheat and sorghum output was estimated at 11 000 tonnes each.
As a consequence of the reduced harvest, cereal import requirements have increased sharply to 332 000 tonnes of cereals, including 93 000 tonnes of wheat, 236 000 tonnes of maize and 3 000 tonnes of rice. Most of these requirements are expected to be covered on commercial basis. While the Mission estimated that there was no need for large-scale food aid, assistance is required in the mountain districts, where the frost damage was most severe. Worst affected districts are Mokhotlong, Thaba-Tseka, Mohale�s Hoek and Quthing, where farmers have lost their crops and a significant number do not have adequate means to access food. This group, representing some 10-15 percent of rural households, will need food assistance and seeds for planting in the next season.
Harvesting of the 2001 cereal crop is completed. Growing conditions were generally favourable and locusts had no significant impact on production. For the main paddy crop, production forecast point to an about average harvest, higher than that of last year adversely affected by a series of hurricanes. Production of maize and other cereals is also forecast to recover from the reduced level of 2000.
The overall food supply situation in the country in the 2001/02 marketing year (April/March) is expected to remain relatively stable, including in the drought- prone southern areas. Prices of food staples, including rice, maize, cassava and Irish potato, declined in July in southern areas and the number of people in need of some food assistance has declined to 117 150. Food aid requirements for these areas are estimated at 3 163 tonnes of maize.
Official production estimates of the 2001 cereal crop have been revised downward to 1.83 million tonnes, 30 percent below the bumper crops of the previous two years. The main maize crop is estimated at 1.71 million tonnes, one-third or 788 000 tonnes lower than in 2000. Production was adversely affected by excessive rains throughout the country, which resulted in floods in several areas and significantly reduced yields. In southern and central parts, dry weather in January also reduced maize yields.
As a result, the country that exported maize in the past two years will need to import commercially some 160 000 tonnes in marketing year 2001/02 (April/March) in order to meet normal consumption requirements. Reflecting the reduced harvest, prices of maize have increased sharply in the past month, affecting access to food of large numbers of vulnerable people. Food shortages are being reported in some districts. Emergency food assistance continues to be distributed to 208 500 people worst affected by the floods.
The 2001 cereal production is officially estimated at 1.5 million tonnes, 7 percent higher than in the previous year. The maize crop is put at 1.14 million tonnes, 12 percent higher mainly due to an expansion in the area planted. Despite severe floods in central provinces that resulted in localized crop losses, and prolonged dry weather in southern provinces, abundant rains in the main growing areas of the north benefited the maize crop.
At this level of production, the country will have an exportable surplus of 100 000 tonnes of maize in marketing year 2001/02 (April/March). Prices of maize have increased sharply since mid-May, particularly in northern areas, and are well above last year�s levels. The highest price increase was reported in the northern province of Tete where market prices in August were 155 percent above their level of July. This mainly reflects strong demand from neighbouring Malawi where production decreased significantly.
By contrast, import requirements of wheat and rice, in which Mozambique has a structural deficit, are estimated at 227 000 tonnes and 140 000 tonnes respectively.
Despite the satisfactory overall food supply situation, there have been reports of food shortages in the southern provinces of Maputo, Gaza and Inhambane, affected by dry weather during the 2000/01 season. The situation is particularly serious as these areas were the worst affected by the severe floods of last year and coping mechanisms of households are becoming exhausted. In Chowke district, 20 000 people were reported to be experiencing food difficulties. The Government is undertaking a detailed assessment of the situation in the affected provinces. However, food aid is being provided by WFP in these areas, considered as chronically food insecure, and an expansion of the operations is under consideration. operations is under consideration.
Latest official estimates indicate a cereal output of 107 000 tonnes in 2001, a decline of 24 percent from last year�s reduced level. Production was affected by a one month dry spell from early January. Subsequent heavy rains were too late to prevent yield reductions. However, the abundant precipitation of February and March benefited pastures and livestock conditions are reported to be generally good throughout the country.
Following the reduced harvest, the cereal import requirement in marketing year 2001/02 (May/April) has increased sharply to 178 000 tonnes (57 000 tonnes of wheat and 120 000 tonnes of maize). However, commercial mills have so far planned to import only 100 000 tonnes. This would leave a deficit that needs to be covered with additional commercial imports during the marketing year. Food supply difficulties are reported in communities where the harvest was poor and for vulnerable people in urban areas.
The heaviest rains in nearly 50 years during July and August in the Western Cape province resulted in floods in urban areas of Cape Town, several of which were declared disaster areas in late August. The Government has allocated funds to assist about 18 000 affected people and food and non-food aid is being distributed by humanitarian agencies among the displaced population. The abundant rains have not damaged the wheat crop to be harvested from October.
Latest estimates of the recently harvested maize crop indicate an output of 7.2 million tonnes, against last year�s above-average output of 10.1 million tonnes. The decline reflects a decrease of 17 percent in the area planted and lower yields due to a prolonged mid-season dry spell. However, grain quality is reported to be high. Prices of maize are reported to have increase 40 percent between May and July reflecting the reduced harvest. There are concerns among millers over the declining demand for maize meal following the price rise.
At the estimated production level, and taking into account carry-over stocks of 2.1 million tonnes, maize availability for export is estimated around 1.27 million tonnes. At this level, stocks will be drawn down to a level of 750 000 tonnes at the end of the marketing year (May/April). The final amount of exports will depend on the country�s desired level of carryover stocks. The projected level of exports is insufficient to cover this year�s increased maize import needs in the sub-region and part of the requirement may need to be imported from overseas.
The early outlook for the wheat crop to be harvested from next month is satisfactory following abundant irrigation water supplies. Preliminary forecasts point to an average crop of 2.2 million tonnes, slightly higher than last year�s level.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission that visited the country last May estimated the 2001 cereal output at 80 000 tonnes, almost entirely maize. At this level, production was close to the reduced crop of the previous year. The poor harvest reflects a prolonged mid-season dry spell that adversely affected yields. As a consequence, cereal imports are forecast at a high level of 123 000 tonnes, including 48 000 tonnes of wheat and 68 000 tonnes of maize. Although most of this requirement is expected to be covered on commercial terms, food assistance may be needed by the most affected households, particularly in the Middle and Lowerveld provinces.
Cereal production in 2000/01 was affected by heavy and continuous rains that resulted in localized floods in several areas, particularly along the Zambezi and Luangwa Rivers, as well as by severe dry weather in the southern areas. A final estimate for maize, the staple of the country, is not yet available. FAO�s preliminary forecast points to a crop of 950 000 tonnes, 28 percent lower than last year. At this level, and taking into account available stocks, there is a deficit of 300 000 tonnes of maize in marketing year 2001/02 (May/April) to be covered through commercial imports and food aid. In mid-July, the Government launched an appeal to the international community for 98 000 tonnes of food aid to assist 2 million people in the 42 districts, out of the 73 in the country, that had been declared in a state of emergency. However, vulnerability assessments being undertaken by WFP suggest that food aid needs of the most severely affected 1.28 million people in 23 districts amount to 42 000 tonnes of cereals. Final findings of the assessment will be available in the next few weeks.
As a result of the decline in production, maize prices started to rise in June, which is somewhat earlier than expected. By mid-August, into-mill prices for maize in Lusaka were of the order of US$136 to US$158 per tonne. The Government has announced that it will take measures to prevent further increases in maize prices and has started distribution of maize in eastern parts of the country. It also announced a ban on maize exports in early September.
Renewed violence on commercial farms was experienced in the past month as land seizures stepped up, resulting in further abandonment of farms and loss of jobs by farm workers. It is estimated that, by early September, about 70 000 farm workers and owners have been forced to leave the farms due to the farm occupations, and the number is still increasing. However, hopes of normalization of the situation have risen following a recent Commonwealth-sponsored meeting in Abuja, Nigeria, at which the United Kingdom and Zimbabwe reached an agreement over land reform. According to the deal, the United Kingdom has promised funding for a land resettlement programme in return for an end to illegal land occupations and restoration of the rule of law.
The 2001 maize crop, accounting for over 90 percent of the total cereal production, was sharply reduced. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in May estimated maize production at 1.5 million tonnes, 28 below last year�s level and well below average. This decrease mainly reflects a decline of 54 percent in the area planted on the large-scale commercial farms, due to disruption by land acquisitions activities. In the communal farms, plantings were affected by payment delays by the Grain Marketing Board, while yields were reduced by a severe mid-season dry spell followed by excessive rains, particularly in southern areas.
The outlook for the 2001 wheat crop, to be harvested from October, is uncertain. The area planted is estimated at 52 000 hectares, 14 percent higher than last year, and production is forecast at 275 000 tonnes, 8 percent above the 2000 crop. However, renewed hostilities on the commercial farms, which account for the total wheat production, could disrupt agricultural activities and adversely affect the final outturn.
Prices of basic food staples, such as bread, cooking oil, milk, sugar, cereals, vegetables and beef, have increased by between 20 percent and 70 percent in the past month and more than 300 percent since June. Maize meal prices increased by 10 percent in August in urban areas, but in some rural areas the price of maize is reported to have more than doubled. This reflects the reduced cereal harvest, a 70 percent fuel price rise, shortages of foreign exchange to import and, in general, the economic crisis facing the country.
The Government has banned private grain sales from midJuly, requiring all stocks to be sold to the Grain Marketing Board. In order to accelerate deliveries, it has also recently increased the procurement price of maize by 13 percent. It has also announced that the country will import 100 000 tonnes of maize from neighbouring South Africa but budgetary constraints limit all food imports. While currently there are no national shortages of maize, they could occur later in the marketing year (April/March) if imports do not materialize. However, food difficulties are already being experienced in some areas where farmers gathered a poor harvest. Localized food shortages are reported in parts of the Midlands and Matabelenland South provinces, with Bulilimamangwe district near the Botswana border being one of the worst affected. The situation of farm workers who lost their jobs due to farms invasions or land acquisitions, and that of increasing numbers of vulnerable people in urban areas gives cause for serious concern.