FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 09/01 - THE UKRAINE (7 September)

THE UKRAINE (7 September)

Grain harvesting is nearly complete, except for maize and in the Western regions of the country. FAO tentatively forecasts this year’s grain output at 31 million tonnes, nearly 8 million tonnes more than FAO's estimates for 2000. The 2001 forecast includes 18 million tonnes of wheat, 6.6 million tonnes of barley and 3 million tonnes of maize. However, the final estimate will depend on the progress of harvests, weather conditions and maize production. Early reports indicate that due to cool, rainy weather in May-June and excessively hot weather in July, maize output may be significantly lower than expected. Official estimates this year show total grain output at about 35 million tonnes with an average yield of 2.99 tonnes per hectare (2000: 1.99 tonnes/ha).

Given that the production targets materialize, cereal exports in 2001/02 could reach nearly 5 million tonnes (2000/01: 1.7 million tonnes), while imports are expected to decline from about 880 000 tonnes in 2000/01 to 150 000 tonnes in 2001/02 marketing year.