FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 11/01 - AFGHANISTAN* (6 November)
Recent escalation of conflict and military action have displaced a large number of people exacerbating the grave food difficulties. Substantial food and other humanitarian assistance is urgently required. Even before the events of 11 September, Afghanistan was gripped by a grave food crisis following three consecutive years of drought and intensifying economic problems due to continuing civil conflict. An FAO/WFP mission to the country last May found evidence of emerging and widespread famine conditions in many parts of the country, where people had exhausted their coping strategies by selling their assets and migrating in search of food elsewhere within or outside the country. The military operations since 7 October have triggered fresh waves of population displacement, aggravating the already dire humanitarian situation.
While the majority of the around 23 million Afghans are facing severe food supply difficulties, some 7.5 million most affected people are in desperate need of food aid. WFP plans to deliver 52 000 tonnes of food aid per month to feed the most vulnerable people, both refugees (1.5 million) and resident population (6 million) in Afghanistan. However, transport and distribution difficulties are hampering the delivery of the required volumes. Some of the food would have to be airlifted to inaccessible areas of the country, in particular the central highlands before the onset of harsh winter in mid-November.
The current adverse situation coincides with the planting season for wheat which accounts for 80 percent of the country�s total cereal production. With the population largely on the move, serious shortages of inputs and a disruption of farming activities by military operations, cereal production in 2001/2002 is set to decline significantly. This would further aggravate the already grave food supply situation in the country.
Such grave scenario comes at a time when the food supply position in the neighbouring countries is also seriously undermined by a prolonged drought. This year�s food production in Pakistan, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan has suffered a significant reduction due to serious drought. The unfavourable food supply situation, which has prompted emergency food assistance in some of these countries, therefore gives little comfort to millions of displaced and resident Afghans who in the past could meet part of their food needs with supplies from neighbouring countries. Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran have been supporting millions of refugees from past conflicts but their capacity to cope with the new arrivals is seriously compromised due to insufficient resources.
During the past three years, the country has witnessed a devastating drought which compounded the impact of years of conflict and brought a large section of the population to the brink of starvation. The 2001 cereal output, estimated at about 2 million tonnes, is about one-half of the production in 1998. As a result of reduced output in 2001, cereal import requirements in the current marketing year (July-June 2001/02) were forecast at a near record volume of some 2.2 million tonnes of which commercial imports were initially projected at 760 000 tonnes. Given the current situation, commercial imports may be only one-third of the earlier estimated volume. Assuming that all of the planned emergency food aid of 494 000 tonnes would be delivered by June 2002, the overall deficit in 2001/02 (July/June) is still likely to be of the order of 1.5 million tonnes of cereals. Only massive mobilization of food and other relief assistance and its distribution, particularly to the vulnerable groups, will avert the threat of starvation in the country.
When the conflict is finally resolved, medium-term agricultural rehabilitation/reconstruction measures in Afghanistan will need to address the reconstruction of irrigation systems, input supply to farmers, farm power, rehabilitation of orchards, livestock and forestry sub- sectors, extension and education and institutional capacity- building. FAO has launched an appeal for some US$200 million for the implementation of countrywide agricultural sector emergency relief and rehabilitation programme.