FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 11/01 - PAKISTAN (6 November)
The country faces a fresh influx of large number of refugees as UNHCR estimates that well over 100 000 Afghans have already entered Pakistan since the September 11 events in the United States. The country already hosts some 2 million Afghan refugees. It is reported that around 7.5 million people have been reported to at the risk of starvation due to scarcity of food this winter inside Afghanistan. While key prices for food items have remained stable in the wake of the crisis, the international community is buying and borrowing wheat from Pakistan for food aid which could put pressure on local supplies of wheat in the country as the crisis lingers on.
The wheat output in the 2001 crop is estimated at 19 million tonnes against an original projection of 20 million tonnes. Production has slipped this year because of a near- drought situation at the time of sowing in November, but stocks from last year's crop are expected to leave a surplus of 1 million tonnes for export. Last year, the country had a bumper crop of 21 million tonnes, exceeding its domestic demand of 19 million tonnes.
The prospects for the paddy crop in the field are reported to be satisfactory in the Punjab province, while harvesting for the early rice varieties has already started and the fine varieties of rice are at maturity stage in the Punjab and Sindh provinces. With the effects of drought now disappearing through beneficial rains this monsoon, a harvest of around 5.8 million tonnes of rice (3.9 million tonnes on milled basis) is forecast in the season 2001 against an earlier estimate of 3.9 million tonnes and compared with 7.2 million tonnes in year 2000.
Harvesting of Kharif maize crop is underway while preparations are being made for the plantation of Rabi wheat. The government has fixed the wheat production target at 20.1 million for the coming Rabi season.