FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.3, December 2001 ETHIOPIA 17

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ETHIOPIA

Area:

976 680 sq.km

Climate:

Northern coastal area and lowlands in south and east are semi-arid to arid; rest of country has a highland rainy climate with mild winter.

Population:

65.0 million (2001 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: US$100 (2000)

Specific characteristics of the country:

Low-income food-deficit country

Logistics:

Land-locked country, roads inadequate

Major foodcrops:

Maize, teff, barley, sorghum, wheat, pulses, enset (false banana)

Marketing year:

January/December; Lean season: August-November

Share of cereals in total calorie intake:

69 percent


CURRENT SITUATION


Harvesting of the 2001 main "Meher" cereal crop is about to start. Overall prospects are favourable reflecting abundant rains during the growing season in major producing areas. The 2001 secondary "Belg" crop, normally harvested from June, was also good and a substantial recovery from last year's poor harvest. Although Belg production accounts for only 8 to 10 percent of total cereal production, it is important in several areas where it provides the bulk of annual food supplies.

By contrast, below-normal rains in the pastoral areas of southern and eastern Ethiopia continue to undermine any recovery from the devastating drought in the last three years. Poor rainfall in parts of Gode, Liban, Werder and Afder Zones, sites of last year's severe food shortages, is particularly worrying. Recent rains in parts may have eased some of the water shortages but continued and widespread rains are needed to improve pastures.

The overall food supply situation in the country is stable as a result of last year's bumper main "meher" season grain production and this year's good secondary "belg" season harvest. However, the sharp decline in grain prices in main producing areas has severely affected household income in rural areas. The Government and donors have made some attempt to support local markets through purchases of grain.

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is in the country since mid-November to assess the "Meher" production and estimate food assistance requirements in 2002.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2001/02 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)

Wheat

Rice

Coarse grains

Total

Previous five years average production

1 154

-

7 306

8 460

Previous five years average imports

545

12

45

602

2001 Domestic Availability

1 369

-

7 569

8 938

2000 Production (rice in paddy terms)

1 369

-

7 569

8 938

2000 Production (rice in milled terms)

1 369

-

7 569

8 938

Possible stock drawdown

-

-

-

-

2001 Utilization

1 999

15

7 614

9 628

Food use

1 762

15

6 348

8 125

of which: local purchase requirement

-

-

300

300

Non-food use

137

-

956

1 093

Exports or re-exports

-

-

200

200

Possible stock build up

100

-

110

210

2001 Import Requirement

630

15

45

690

Anticipated commercial imports

30

15

-

45

Food aid needs

600

-

45

645

Current Aid Position
       
Food aid pledges

783

1

49

832

of which: delivered

626

1

45

672

Donor-financed purchases

-

-

60

60

of which: for local use

-

-

60

60

for export

-

-

-

-

Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/year)

27

-

98

125

Indexes
       
2000 Production as % of average:
     

106

2001 Import requirement as % of average:
     

115


FAO/GIEWS - December 2001

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