CURRENT SITUATION

Harvesting of the 2001 cereal and pulse crops is about to start. Prospects for a good cereal crop in 2001 were somewhat dampened following below normal rains in September which are important for crops at flowering and seed setting stages. Field assessments for the Consolidated Appeal Process (CAP) during September indicate lower expected production than the preliminary crop estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture in early August. However, the revised cereal production estimate, put at 203 000 tonnes, is still about 3 times more than last year's well below average crop.

The overall food situation remains tight following population displacement by the war with Ethiopia and drought last year. Last year's cereal crop was sharply reduced due mainly to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of farmers from the agriculturally rich regions of Gash Barka and Debub, which account for more than 70 percent of cereal production. The total number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) has declined from 70 000 to about 58 000 in September.

Two Emergency Operations were jointly approved in April and May 2001 by FAO and WFP for food assistance to about 1.8 million people affected by war and drought, worth a total sum of US$77 million for a period of 10 months (May 2001 to February 2002). The balance of WFP food stocks as of end-September stood at 66 000 tonnes which is expected to meet emergency food requirements until the end of the first quarter or mid-2002. Although the number of IDPs in camps is gradually declining, further food assistance is required as more refugees are returning from Sudan.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2001/02 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)