CURRENT SITUATION

Planting of the 2002 cereal crops, to be harvested from April next year, has just started. Generally normal rains during October, which were above average in southern parts, favoured land preparation and early planting of crops.

The 2001 cereal production increased by 7 percent on last year's level mainly due to higher plantings. Despite severe floods in central provinces and dry weather in southern provinces, abundant rains in the main growing areas of the north benefited the maize crop, estimated 12 percent up at 1.14 million tonnes. At this level of production, the country will have an exportable surplus of 100 000 tonnes of maize in marketing year 2001/02 (April/March).

However, real prices of maize are well above their levels of a year ago, particularly in the Beira, Tete and Nampula provinces. In Tete, prices by the end of September were over 200 percent higher than a year ago in real terms. This reflects strong demand from neighbouring Malawi where production decreased significantly. In the capital Maputo, maize prices are about one-third higher. Prices of other food staples such as rice and beans have also increased markedly during October.

Despite a satisfactory food supply situation at national level, the increased prices are restricting access to food for the most vulnerable sections of the population. There have been reports of food shortages in the southern provinces of Maputo, Gaza and Inhambane. Recent assessments undertaken by the Government and international agencies in the country indicate that 80 000 to 100 000 most vulnerable people are in need of emergency food aid until the next harvest.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2001/02 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)