Should the current forecasts for cereal trade, food aid and prices for 2001/02 materialize, the economically vulnerable and food deficit regions could face more elevated cereal import bills this season than in 2000/01, while the estimated per unit cereal import cost for most developing regions is also seen to increase for the second consecutive year. The developing countries are likely to spend at least US$23 billion for imports of cereals in 2001/02, up 3 percent from the previous season; while in the Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs), the expected rise in the import volume, coupled with expected higher prices, could bring forth a 7 percent jump in their total cereal import bill, to almost US$10 billion. At the current forecast levels, the developing countries would face a rise of more than US$3 per tonne in their per unit cereal import cost while the rise would be US$4 per tonne for the LIFDCs.
The combined cereal import bill of the Least-Developed Countries (LDCs) and the Net-Food Importing Developing Countries (NFIDCs), which include a list of nations agreed by the World Trade Organization (WTO) to qualify as beneficiaries under the Marrakech Decision on the Possible Negative Effects of the Reform Programme, is expected to reach US$6 billion in 2001/02, down 4 percent from 2000/01. Most of this decline would reflect a relatively significant (2.5 million tonnes) reduction in the expected volume of their total cereal imports. In addition, cereal food aid shipments to the LDCs are forecast to increase from 3.6 million tonnes in 2000/01 to 4.5 million tonnes, most of which would be due to larger shipments to
Afghanistan. At the current forecast levels, the per unit import cost for the LDCs is likely to stabilize at the previous season's level of around US$122 per tonne while, for the NFIDCs category, which includes much smaller food aid recipient countries, the per unit import cost could rise to US$133 per tonne in 2001/02, up US$4 per tonne from the previous season. Nevertheless, in all cases, the per unit import cost estimates continue to remain well below the peaks observed during the cereal price hike periods of the mid-1990s.
1993/94
|
1994/95
|
1995/96
|
1996/97
|
1997/98
|
1998/99
|
1999/00
|
2000/01estimate
|
2001/02 forecast
| |
|
(.................................................US$
billion...............................................)
| |||||||||
LIFDCs
|
8.9
|
12.2
|
16.9
|
12.8
|
12.9
|
9.7
|
9.1
|
9.3
|
9.9
|
Africa
|
3.0
|
3.3
|
4.8
|
4.5
|
4.3
|
3.9
|
3.6
|
4.4
|
4.1
|
Asia
|
5.2
|
8.1
|
11.2
|
7.3
|
7.8
|
5.0
|
4.7
|
4.1
|
4.9
|
Latin Am.
and Carib.
|
0.6
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
0.6
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
Oceania
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
Europe
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
Wheat
|
5.8
|
6.9
|
10.7
|
8.1
|
6.6
|
5.1
|
4.9
|
5.2
|
5.6
|
Coarse grains
|
1.9
|
2.1
|
3.8
|
2.8
|
2.3
|
2.0
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
2.3
|
Rice
|
1.2
|
3.3
|
2.4
|
1.9
|
3.9
|
2.6
|
1.8
|
1.7
|
2.0
|
In general, wheat accounts for the largest portion of the cereal import bill for most countries, which tends to exceed by a large margin the imports of all other major cereals. The overall value of wheat imports by the developing countries in 2001/02 is currently forecast at US$12 billion, up US$600 million from 2000/01, reflecting expected stronger prices and a likely increase in import volume. For the LIFDCs, as a group, the value of total wheat imports is forecast at US$5.6 billion, some US$400 million more than in the previous season. The developing countries are also expected to spend at least US$3.4 billion on rice imports, which would represent an increase of some US$400 million over 2001, again due to larger imports and higher international prices. The LIFDCs are likely to account for most of this increase, with their rice import bills rising from US$1.7 billion in 2001 to US$2 billion in 2002. By contrast, the import cost for purchasing coarse grains by the developing countries in 2001/02 is put at US$7.4 billion, some US$200 million below the previous season's estimated level, mainly because of lower overall volume of imports. The LIFDCs are also likely to spend a bit less (about US$50 million) on coarse grain imports in 2001/02, which could reach US$2.3 billion.
1996/97
|
1997/98
|
1998/99
|
1999/2000
|
2000/01
estim. |
2001/02
f'cast. | |
Import Bill (US$ billion)
|
||||||
Developing countries
|
27.7
|
25.6
|
21.5
|
21.2
|
22.2
|
22.8
|
LIFDCs
|
12.8
|
12.9
|
9.7
|
9.1
|
9.3
|
9.9
|
LDCs
|
2.0
|
2.5
|
2.2
|
1.8
|
1.9
|
1.9
|
NFIDCs
|
5.3
|
4.9
|
4.4
|
3.8
|
4.2
|
4.0
|
Total volume imported (million tonnes)
|
||||||
Developing countries
|
149.8
|
159.5
|
161.4
|
169.6
|
170.5
|
170.7
|
LIFDCs
|
69.1
|
78.7
|
73.7
|
74.1
|
72.2
|
74.5
|
LDCs
|
11.8
|
15.3
|
16.9
|
16.0
|
15.3
|
15.4
|
NFIDCs
|
28.5
|
32.0
|
33.4
|
30.6
|
32.9
|
30.2
|
Food aid (million tonnes)
|
||||||
Developing countries
|
4.8
|
5.4
|
8.8
|
7.7
|
7.7
|
8.7
|
% of total imports
|
3.2
|
3.4
|
5.4
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
5.1
|
LIFDCs
|
4.7
|
5.5
|
8.4
|
7.6
|
7.4
|
8.4
|
% of total imports
|
6.8
|
7.0
|
11.4
|
10.2
|
10.3
|
11.3
|
LDCs
|
2.7
|
2.9
|
4.0
|
4.1
|
3.6
|
4.5
|
% of total imports
|
22.9
|
18.7
|
23.7
|
25.9
|
23.4
|
29.2
|
NFIDCs
|
0.5
|
0.6
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
% of total imports
|
1.8
|
2.0
|
2.3
|
2.5
|
3.5
|
3.8
|
Commercial imports (million tonnes)
|
||||||
Developing countries
|
145.0
|
154.1
|
152.6
|
161.9
|
162.9
|
162.1
|
LIFDCs
|
64.4
|
73.3
|
65.3
|
66.6
|
64.8
|
66.1
|
LDCs
|
9.1
|
12.4
|
12.9
|
11.8
|
11.7
|
10.9
|
NFIDCs
|
28.0
|
31.3
|
32.7
|
29.8
|
31.7
|
29.1
|
Per unit import cost (US$/tonne)2/
|
||||||
Developing countries
|
184.9
|
160.5
|
133.5
|
124.9
|
130.0
|
133.3
|
LIFDCs
|
185.0
|
163.7
|
132.2
|
122.5
|
128.9
|
133.1
|
LDCs
|
171.9
|
161.5
|
130.8
|
110.9
|
122.6
|
122.2
|
NFIDCs
|
187.4
|
154.6
|
130.5
|
125.1
|
128.9
|
132.6
|
