In 2003 Southeast Asia accounted for approximately one-quarter of the world’s poultry trade (including re-exports from China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region), with China and Thailand as the largest exporters. Accounting for 15 percent of global poultry shipments, these two countries are estimated to have exported almost 1.1 million tonnes, more than half of which went to Japan. To date, many of the major poultry importing countries have banned poultry imports from both countries.
The impact of countries’ banning both Thai and Chinese poultry exports is seen in higher international poultry prices and increasing demand for poultry meat from other major suppliers, such as Brazil, the European Union and the United States. The ban also puts upward pressure on other meat prices, which were already increasing as a result of current bans on United States and Canadian beef because of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) concerns. In particular, meat prices in some Asian markets, such as Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan Province of China, where AI is reducing poultry inventories and which are traditionally highly dependent on United States beef imports, should rise very quickly.
In the Japanese market, where nearly 70 percent of domestic consumption is supplied by imports, the ban on chicken imports from China and Thailand, which account for nearly three-quarters of Japanese poultry imports, is expected to result in increased imports from other suppliers, such as Brazil and the United States. As a result of market shortages, Japanese wholesale prices for frozen leg quarters are reported to be up nearly 45 percent from pre-ban prices. In Singapore, a market highly dependent on imported poultry, media sources indicate that prices for frozen chicken imports are up by as much as 20 percent since the disease outbreak. Furthermore, meat consumption patterns are shifting with fast food chains in some countries reporting a switch to selling fish burgers rather than chicken products.
|
Importer |
From China |
From Thailand |
||||||
|
Volume |
Value |
Volume |
Value |
|||||
|
1 000 tonnes |
Share to (%) |
US$1 million |
Share to (%) |
1 000 tonnes |
Share to (%) |
US$1 million |
Share to (%) |
|
|
European Union |
4 |
1 |
7.2 |
1 |
171 |
31 |
331 |
33 |
|
Germany |
1 |
0 |
2.7 |
0 |
50.7 |
9 |
91.8 |
9 |
|
Netherlands |
2.4 |
0 |
2.6 |
0 |
46 |
8 |
82 |
8 |
|
United Kingdom |
0.023 |
0 |
0.066 |
0 |
65 |
12 |
138 |
14 |
|
Japan |
336.6 |
60 |
636.9 |
73 |
289 |
52 |
557 |
55 |
|
Other regions |
219.7 |
39 |
223.9 |
26 |
92 |
17 |
117 |
12 |
|
Total |
560.3 |
100 |
868 |
100 |
552 |
100 |
1 005 |
100 |
Source: FAO. 2004. Data trade flow.
The impact of the disease is likely to be felt most strongly by smallholders and smaller specialized broiler and layer operations that lack the biosecurity measures put in place by the larger commercial units. This has the potential to accelerate trends towards the industrialization of poultry operations in the affected countries.
FAO. 2004. N. Morgan, Commodities and Trade Division, Rome.
For more information see
http://www.fao.org/es/ESC/en/20953/21014/highlight_36567en.html.
