Despite recent beneficial rain and snowfall, production of wheat and barley in 2002 will be seriously jeopardized by shortage of agricultural inputs and disruptions in farming activities caused by the recent military operations which coincided with the planting season.
The food situation remains grave notwithstanding the improved delivery of food assistance. During the past three years, the country has suffered a devastating drought which compounded the impact of years of conflict and brought a large section of the population to the brink of starvation. The 2001 cereal output has been estimated at about 2 million tonnes, about one-half of the production in 1998. As a result, cereal import requirements in the current marketing year (July/June 2001/02) were forecast at a near record volume of some 2.2 million tonnes. Distribution of emergency food is being seriously hampered by heavy snowfall.
Agricultural rehabilitation/reconstruction measures in Afghanistan will need to urgently address, inter alia, the restoration of irrigation systems, input supply to farmers, farm power and livestock production. FAO has appealed for some US$21 million to assist the country in these critical areas.
Grain harvest in 2001 nearly doubled at 417 000 tonnes compared to the drought reduced poor harvest in 2000. Grain production in 2001, some 46 percent higher than the average of the past five years, included 340 000 tonnes of wheat compared with 151 000 tonnes in 2000, and 74 000 tonnes of coarse grains compared with 71 000 tonnes in 2000. Winter cereals for harvest in 2002 have been seeded on 317 000 hectares, which is similar to the area under winter cereals in 2001.
Potato production, a major staple food crop, increased by 33 percent in 2001 compared to the drought reduced crop of 2000 at 300 000 tonnes. Cereal import requirement for the marketing year 2001/02 is estimated at about 303 000 tonnes including an estimated food aid requirement of 71 000 tonnes.
Grain production in 2001 was estimated at more than 2 million tonnes, which is higher than the improved harvest of the preceding year by about 550 000 tonnes. Grain harvest in 2001 included 1.5 million tonnes of wheat, 252 000 tonnes of barley and 150 000 tonnes of maize. Winter cereals are the most important crops in Azerbaijan and a similar harvest is expected this year as a matching area has been planted to cereals this winter.
Cereal import requirements for 2001/02 marketing year are estimated at 800 000 tonnes, mostly wheat, which should be commercially procured. However the most vulnerable and internally displaced population will continue to depend on targeted food assistance.
Normal to slightly above-normal rainfall was registered across the country in the last months of 2001. The main crops presently in the ground are wheat and irrigated �boro� rice crop, the latter accounting for almost 45 percent of total annual rice production.
The overall food situation is satisfactory with adequate government food grain reserves. At the end of November 2001 there was a total of 1.2 million tonnes of grain in the Government�s Public Food Distribution System, including 558 000 tonnes of rice and over 685 000 tonnes of wheat. However, despite the high rice stocks, the Government has decided to ease credit facilities to rice importers to prevent domestic prices from rising in view of uncertain prospects for the �boro� crop.
Harvesting of the country�s main wet rice crop, which accounts for nearly 80 percent of rice production, has been completed. Notwithstanding the extremely dry month of July, which registered the lowest precipitation in 30 years, and the torrential rains and flooding which followed during most of August, aggregate paddy output in 2001 was 3.6 million tonnes (2.2 in milled rice equivalent), which was average. Rice accounts for about 84 percent of annual food crop production. The satisfactory output should help stabilize the overall food supply situation which was destabilized by flooding in August, when thousands of people were forced to leave their homes and needed food assistance.
Growing conditions have improved for the 2001/02 winter wheat crop, particularly in the southern areas which were seriously affected by dry weather at planting in October. In the northern growing areas, more precipitation is still needed, despite beneficial rains and snowfall in November and December. The total area planted has decreased from 26.7 million hectares in 2000/01 to a present 24.6 million hectares and wheat output is provisionally forecast at 94.2 million tonnes compared to 99.6 million tonnes in the previous year.
Sowing of the 2001/02 wheat and barley crops for harvest from May has been completed under generally favourable weather. Production of barley in 2001 has been revised to 115 000 tonnes, an increase of 55 percent compared to the average of the previous five years. Imports of cereals in 2001/02 (May/April), mainly wheat and barley are forecast at the previous years� level of some 600 000 tonnes.
Planting of the main rice and maize crops was completed in November and weather conditions have favoured the development of the crops. Harvest is due from April and early forecasts point to average outputs.
Assistance from the international community continues to be provided for the resettlement of East Timorese returnees.
Grain harvest at 718 000 tonnes nearly doubled in 2001 compared with the drought reduced harvest of the preceding year (391 000 tonnes). Production included 305 000 tonnes of wheat, 350 000 tonnes of maize and 50 000 tonnes of barley. Drought in the western parts of the country severely compromised the spring crop and many drought-affected farmers are in need of relief assistance. Winter sewing campaign is complete and similar areas to the preceding year have been seeded. Winter cereal harvest, which is the main crop, will depend on late winter and early spring precipitation.
Cereal import requirement in 2001/02 marketing year (mostly wheat) is estimated at 460 000 tonnes, including food aid of 81 000 tonnes, which have been virtually entirely pledged. The Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation activities are planned to be extended until 30 March 2003.
Planting of the 2001/02 wheat crop was completed in November and recent timely rains have ensured favourable production prospects. Assuming weather conditions stay within normal range, a good harvest should be expected. Harvest is due to start from April and output is tentatively forecast to increase from last year�s 68.5 million tonnes to some 70 million tonnes.
Government wheat stocks were reported at 35.8 million tonnes at the beginning of November. High rice stocks are also reported and for both crops efforts are being made to encourage exports. However, much will depend upon the supply and demand situation on the world commodity markets.
Heavy monsoon rains at the end of January resulted in landslides and flooding which caused enormous damage to housing and infrastructure, and also destroyed hundreds of hectares of cropland, particularly in the islands of Java and Sumatra. Thousands of people fled their homes and an increasing number of casualties is reported. A high alert has been issued by the Government for possible further downpours. Emergency relief is being provided to the affected population. Planting of the 2001/02 main rice crop was about to be completed when the heavy rains began, and a provisonal assessment of damage would indicate that some 495 000 tonnes of paddy have been lost. Losses of a lesser extent have been incurred to maize and soya crops.
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (1 February)
The continuing drought conditions for the last three years have severely affected all crops and livestock. Water shortage in urban and particularly in rural areas have forced migration into other areas. Thousands of nomadic herders have lost their only source of livelihood. Aggregate cereal output in 2001 is presently estimated at a 11.6 million tonnes, well below the output of 19 million tonnes in 1998 and an average of 15.5 millions for the previous 5 years. Particularly affected was the wheat crop, which was 2.2 million tonnes below the average, while coarse grains production was 2.3 million tonnes compared to an average 3.3 million tonnes.
Despite improved precipitation in the region, prospects for the 2002 winter grain crops in Iraq are uncertain. Cereal production will be affected by serious shortages of fertilizers, spare parts for agricultural machinery and other agricultural inputs. Production of cereals (mainly wheat and barley) in 2001 is estimated at 1.8 million tonnes, 12 percent below average. Grain imported under the SCR 986 oil-for-food deal has led to significant improvements in the overall food supply situation, but malnutrition remains a serious problem.
Early prospects for the 2002 wheat and barley crops, to be harvested from April are favourable so far, reflecting improved precipitation. Domestic production of wheat in normal years covers less than one-fifth of total requirement, the rest being imported commercially. Aggregate production of wheat and barley in 2001 is estimated at 180 000 tonnes, more than double the below-average crop harvested in the previous year and above average. Imports of cereals in 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast to increase by about 10 percent to 3.1 million tonnes.
Harvesting of the 2001 rice crop was completed in November and output is estimated at 11.3 million tonnes compared to the past 5-year average of 12 million tonnes.
The sowing of the 2002 winter grains was completed in December under generally improved weather conditions. Heavy snow cover in early January provided relief from the severe drought conditions earlier.
Aggregate production of wheat and barley in 2001 is estimated at 20 000 tonnes, about 52 percent below the reduced crop of the previous year. Domestic cereal production normally meets only a small proportion of the country�s requirements, the rest being imported. Imports of wheat in 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast at 800 000 tonnes, slightly higher than last year. Coarse grain imports are forecast at 1.2 million tonnes, about the same as in 2000/01.
Grain harvest in 2001 amounted to 16.5 million tonnes compared with 11.6 million tonnes in 2000. Grain production includes 13.5 million tonnes of wheat, 2 million tonnes of barley and 260 000 tonnes of maize. On average, grain yields in 2001 were higher by 325 kg per hectare and harvested area was higher by 784 000 hectares compared with 2000. Favourable weather conditions and virtually disease-free crops contributed to higher output this year. Heavy rains during October 2001 might have reduced the quality of some of the crops.
Cereal export during 2001/02 marketing year (July/June) is estimated at 4.6 million tonnes, mostly wheat, compared to 4 million tonnes last year.
KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (1 February)
The country experienced a strong recovery in 2001 from the poor harvest of the previous year. This was due to favourable weather conditions and the assistance received from the international community in terms of various types of farm inputs. Aggregate cereal output for the year has been estimated at 3.7 million tonnes, some 700 000 tonnes above the previous year�s production and about 5 percent above the average of the past 5 years. At present, the important barley crop is in the ground for harvesting from April. Early prospects are uncertain due to inadequate snowfall.
Despite the improved overall food supply situation, domestic food output is not enough to meet the country�s food requirements. Food assistance estimated at 610 000 tonnes is required in 2002 to meet minimum food needs.
KOREA, REPUBLIC OF (1 February)
Aggregate cereal production, mainly rice, in 2001 was a record 7.4 million tonnes, from an area of some 1.1 million hectares. This is the first increase in production since 1997, when the number of productive farms and rice acreage started to decline to make more land available for infrastructure and urban development.
Cereal harvest in 2001 totalled about 1.5 million tonnes, some 100 000 tonnes higher than the previous year. Output in 2001 included 1.2 million tonnes of wheat, 220 000 tonnes of maize and 130 000 tonnes of barley. Regional drought and water shortages did not affect Kyrgyzstan as much as other countries due to upstream benefits. This year�s cereal harvest is seen to be at least as high as in 2001, but much will depend on the level of precipitation and water availability in the coming months. Cereal import requirement in 2001/02 marketing year is estimated at 159 000 tonnes including an estimated food aid requirement of 50 000 tonnes.
Planting of the 2001/02 second season irrigated rice crop is underway and expected to be completed by the end of February. The crop accounts for some 15 percent of the annual rice production.
Despite a slightly above-average cereal crop, principally rice, in 2001, the food supply situation remains tight for some of the flood affected victims in the previous year, who lost entirely their crops and property.
The sowing of the wheat and barley crops, due for harvest from June, was completed under generally improved weather conditions. Production of cereals in 2001 is estimated at 93 000 tonnes which is about average.
Imports of cereals, mainly wheat, in 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast at some 0.75 million tonnes, similar to the previous year.
Harvesting of the main 2001/02 rice crop is underway and should be completed by April. The main crop accounts for about 60 percent of around 2 million tonnes of paddy that the country produces per year. The rest of the production comes from the off-season crop planted in March/April. Total production, however, does not fully cover domestic requirements and imports of 600 000 to 700 000 tonnes of rice are estimated for in 2002 (July/June). Imports of wheat are estimated at 1.3 million tonnes while those of maize are forecast at 2.5 million tonnes in 2001/02 marketing year (July/June). Efforts are being made by the Government to reduce dependency on imports.
Harvest of the 2001 wheat crop, the main food staple, was completed in November and output was about average at 190 000 tonnes. This represents only a slight recovery from the previous year�s 186 000 tonnes. The low output is attributed to recurrent harsh winters, structural changes in the economy and the absence of an integrated farming system.
In 2000-2001 the country experienced the worst winter in decades which seriously affected the food security of a large segment of the nomadic population. International food assistance helped significantly and is expected to continue through 2002. The impact of another severe cold winter this year could aggravate the fragile situation faced by thousands of herder families. A severe winter storm was experienced in December 2001 which killed over 66 000 head of livestock, while 24 000 animals disappeared. The situation is likely to deteriorate as very cold and windy conditions are forecast in the coming weeks. (In 2001 some 3.5 million animals froze to death.)
Harvesting of the 2001 main monsoon rice crop and planting of the dry season irrigated crop have been completed. Harvest prospects for the dry season crop, to be harvested from April, are good. Aggregate output from both crops is provisionally estimated at 20.6 million tonnes (13.1 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent). Wheat and maize outputs collected in 2001 are estimated at an average 85 000 tonnes and 301 000 tonnes respectively.
Despite heavy rains during the monsoon season, resulting in landslides and flooding, output from the 2001 paddy crop was 4.2 million tonnes (2.8 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent), which was average. The winter wheat crop is in the ground for harvesting from April.
Harvesting of the winter wheat (rabi) crop, presently in the ground, is due to start from late March and continue through July. The crop is planted at the end of October through November and is mostly irrigated. Despite below-normal rainfall during sowing and a current dry spell, sufficient soil moisture was accumulated in early summer and production prospects are favourable. Wheat output in 2002 is provisionally forecast at an above-average level of 20 million tonnes, some 1 million tonnes above production in 2001. Due to present large carry-over stocks, including maintenance of strategic wheat reserves, the government intends to increase wheat exports in marketing year 2002/03.
Coarse grain output in 2001 was an average 2.1 million tonnes. Production of paddy (planted May through July) improved from earlier estimates, due to monsoon rains which helped alleviate irrigation water shortages, but nevertheless remained below average at 5.7 million tonnes (3.8 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent).
Torrential rains in early January resulted in flashfloods in the southern areas, causing serious damage to housing and infrastructure, as well as to farm land. More than 42 000 people were directly affected.
The main crops in the ground are the dry season rice (planted in October-December) and maize. Harvesting is due to start from April and last through May. Early official forecasts indicate that despite possible damage to crops by heavy rains, rice production should increase considerably, mainly as a result of the government�s recent programme to improve conditions in the agricultural sector, including distribution of good certified seeds and expansion of irrigated areas. Paddy production in 2001 was as record 12.7 million tonnes (8.3 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent).
Growing conditions for the 2002 wheat and barley crops due for harvest from April have improved due to recent precipitation. Production of wheat in 2001 is estimated at 1.8 million tonnes, similar to the previous year, which together with stocks, will be sufficient to cover the country�s requirements. Imports of coarse grains (mainly barley and maize) in 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast to remain unchanged at 6.2 million tonnes.
In 2001 the country was affected by the worst drought in 30 years which affected 1.6 million people. Food aid from the international community is being provided to the affected population.
The Maha rice crop, the main crop, is presently in the ground for harvesting from March. Planting of the Maha crop coincides with the arrival of the northeast monsoon in December, the country�s main rainy season which started on time in 2001.
Reflecting improved weather conditions and adequate availability of agricultural inputs, the prospects for wheat and barley crops to be harvested from May are favourable. Production of wheat in 2001 is estimated to have increased by about 1.8 million tonnes to the above-average level of 4.5 million tonnes. Barley output rose significantly to 1.3 million tonnes nearly double the average for the previous five years.
Imports of wheat and rice in 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast at a total of 290 000 tonnes, nearly the same as last year while those of maize are forecast at 700 000 tonnes, about 80 percent above the previous year.
Grain production in 2001 was estimated at 300 000 tonnes, which was even lower than the drought reduced harvest in 2000 by about 52 000 tonnes. Wheat output, the main staple crop, was estimated at 233 000 tonnes in 2001 compared with 283 000 tonnes in 2000 and 366 000 tonnes in 1999. Wheat requirement in the country is about 1 million tonnes, nearly 800 000 tonnes of which is for food use. This year similar areas to last year have been seeded to winter cereals but harvest levels will strongly depend on the level of precipitation and water availability in the two main rivers, the Amu and Syr rivers, during late winter and Spring. Tajikistan has been in the grip of severe drought three years in succession.
Cereal import requirement (mainly wheat) for 2001/02 marketing year (July/June) is estimated at 788 000 tonnes, 400 000 tonnes of which is to be commercially procured and remainder to be provided as food aid.
From July 2001 to January 2002, WFP distributed 459 000 tonnes of mixed food commodities. An additional 59 000 tonnes are expected to arrive during February-May 2002.
Harvesting of the main wet season rice crop, planted from June through September, is about to be completed while planting of the second season crop is underway. A bumper paddy crop of some 25.2 million tonnes (16.7 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent) is provisionally forecast. Rice exports in 2002 are expected to be about 7.5 million tonnes, very similar to the volume exported in 2001.
Early prospects for the 2002 wheat and barley have improved with recent heavy rain and snowfall. Production of wheat in 2001, estimated at 16 million tonnes, was about 12 percent lower than in 2000 due to dry and warm weather during last winter and spring months and poor availability of high quality seeds. Output of coarse grains (mostly barley and maize) decreased by about 1.8 million tonnes to 9.2 million tonnes. Paddy production is forecast at 300 000 tonnes similar to the previous year. Wheat imports in 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast at 1.3 million tonnes compared with 1 million tonnes estimated for the previous year. Maize imports are also forecast to increase by 150 000 tonnes to 950 000 tonnes. Exports of wheat and barley in the year ending June 2002 are expected to decline sharply.
Cereal harvest in 2001 totalled about 1.7 million tonnes, compared to 1.5 million tonnes in 2000, including 1.6 million tonnes of wheat, 50 000 tonnes of barley, 20 000 tonnes of maize and 20 000 tonnes of rice. Despite the regional drought and water shortages, cereal production levels increased due to some increase in area under wheat. The government plans to further increase area sown to wheat and other cereals as well as cotton. The areas that suffer the most from water shortages are Mary province (bordering the Islamic Republic of Iran and Afghanistan) and Dashagouz (bordering Karaklpakstan region of Uzbekistan), which should be monitored during the course of the winter cropping season. Cereal import requirement for 2001/02 marketing year was estimated at about 61 000 tonnes, which compares with only 26 000 tonnes the previous year�s imports. Area seeded to winter cereals this year is similar to 2001, harvest will depend on the level of precipitation and water availability in the Amu an Murghab rivers.
Uzbekistan harvested some 3.7 million tonnes of grains in 2001, which is more than 200 000 below the drought reduced harvest of 2000. Drought and water shortages have compromised crop production for the past two years, in particular the water levels in Amu and Syr rivers were reportedly flowing at 40 percent of the normal levels at crucial cropping seasons. This year�s harvest will again depend on the level of precipitation and water availability in the two main rivers. The worst affected areas for the past two years have been Karakalpakstan and Khorzam autonomous regions, where some 600 000 people required emergency food aid last year, water availability in the Amu river will be critical for this year�s crop production as well.
Cereal import requirements in 2001/02 are estimated at about 1 million tonnes, some 400 000 tonnes higher than the preceding year�s imports. Food aid requirement is estimated at about 121 000 tonnes, including 60 000 tonnes of wheat, 51 000 tonnes of rice and 10 000 tonnes of maize.
The country was seriously affected by heavy flooding, particularly in the Mekong Delta, in late October, and by tropical storms in December. Enormous damage to housing and infrastructure was reported and international relief assistance was provided at the request of the government. Production of paddy in 2001 declined from the 32.5 million tonnes in the previous year to some 31.9 million tonnes (21.3 millions in rice milled equivalent), which was still above average.
Rice exports in 2001 are estimated at 3.6 million tonnes, an increase of some 73 000 tonnes over 2000, but lower from what the government intended.
Harvest of the winter/spring rice crop is due to start from the middle of February in some parts. The crop is the largest of the three rice crops produced each year, contributing about 36 percent of aggregate rice production. Crop conditions are good and a bumper crop is anticipated.
Land preparation for the sowing of the main sorghum and millet crops to be harvested towards the end of the year is about to start. The output from the 2001 sorghum crop is estimated at some 400 000 tonnes, about 2 percent higher than the previous year. Output from the wheat crop increased slightly to 146 000 tonnes. Maize production estimated at 50 000 tonnes was 2 000 tonnes more than in 2000. Imports of cereals in 2001 - mainly wheat - are forecast at 2.38 million tonnes, about 8 percent higher than previous year.