Good snow cover in early March in the major winter wheat producing provinces of Henan and Shandong (accounting for more than 40 percent of total wheat production) helped protect crops from low temperatures and will substantially improve soil moisture in these provinces. The area planted to winter wheat in September/October 2001 is estimated at 21.5 million hectares compared to 22.2 million hectares the previous year, a reduction of about 3 percent. This reflects dry conditions at planting time, low domestic wheat prices and attractive alternative crops. The latest forecast of the June 2002 harvest points to an output of 86.2 million tonnes. The spring wheat now being planted is tentatively forecast to produce some 6.2 million tonnes, which gives total national wheat production of 92.4 million tonnes for the 2002/03 marketing year (July/June), compared to 93.4 million tonnes the previous year.

The 2002 coarse grain crop, of which maize accounts for 90 percent, is now being planted. In the important maize growing north-eastern province of Jilin, sowing is seriously affected by very dry conditions. Provisionally, production of coarse grain is forecast at 130 million tonnes.

China’s paddy production has been falling over the past five years from a harvest of 200.7 million tonnes in 1997/98 to an estimated 177.0 million tonnes in 2001/02, mainly reflecting a decrease in the area planted. Indications are that the area for the 2002/03 early paddy crop, planted in February/March, has followed the downward trend, while lower plantings are also foreseen for both the main crop to be planted in May/June and the late crop to be planted in June/July. As a result, despite expected higher yields, the preliminary forecast of the total 2002/03 paddy harvest is 176.6 million tonnes (121 million tonnes milled rice).

The latest estimate of the 2002 national cereal production is 398.9 million tonnes, about the same as the poor crop of the previous year and 7.5 percent below the 1997/2001 average. The shortfall in production is expected to be met partly by higher imports and partly by drawdown of stocks.