FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 04/02 - INDIA (16 April)
Prospects for the 2002 winter wheat crop, now being harvested, are good. Below normal, but timely rainfall in January and February 2002 accompanied by a prolonged cold spell benefited crop development. The latest estimate of production from the 26.5 million hectares planted in October/November 2001 is 73.5 million tonnes, some 7 percent above the harvest of 68.8 million tonnes of last year, but well below the record crop of 76.4 million tonnes in 2000.
Rice production in 2001 is estimated at 90.7 million tonnes, 7 percent more than the 84.9 million tonnes harvested last year, and a record. The production of coarse grains harvested in September/November 2001 is estimated at 30.9 million tonnes, which is about average. For 2002, the coarse grain production is provisionally forecast to increase to 33 million tonnes.
Following the good harvests of both wheat and rice in recent years, the overall food supply situation is satisfactory. India’s cereal stocks have grown to record and undesirably high levels, reflecting attractive farmers’ support prices, sluggish consumer demand and poor export opportunities. With yet another expected record procurement, India’s wheat and rice stocks in 2002 could grow to levels of 45 million tonnes and 30 million tonnes, respectively, or about 20 percent of world stocks of the two cereals.