Reports point to an improved harvest this year compared with the drought-reduced harvest of the past few years. Tentatively forecasts indicate a grain harvest of about 400 000 tonnes in 2002, which is about 100 000 tonnes higher than the drought reduced harvest of the preceding year. However, spring and summer precipitation and snowmelt are crucial for achieving the forecast harvest. Some reports indicate that the drought may not have been over, ground water levels have not been sufficiently restored and the level of river flow is still below average. Even if the target harvest is achieved, Tajikistan will still require targeted food aid to the vulnerable, internally displaced and drought affected population. Cereal import requirement for the coming marketing year has been estimated at 793 000 tonnes, including 387 000 tonnes of food aid.