FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 04/02 - UNITED STATES (2 April)
According to the USDA Prospective Planting Report (28 April), all wheat plantings for the 2002 crop are forecast to fall by about 1 percent to 23.9 million hectares, the lowest level since 1972. The winter wheat area is estimated to be virtually unchanged from the previous year, while spring wheat plantings are forecast to decrease by about 3 percent. Regarding harvested area and yield it is still too early to make firm forecasts. Winter crops across most of the Plains have been stressed by dry conditions since planting last autumn and their overall condition rating at the beginning of April was somewhat below normal. However, despite this, a repeat of last year’s exceptionally high winter kill-out rates in not expected. Assuming normal weather conditions for the remainder of the season and that the harvested/planted ratio and yields for the overall wheat crop are about the recent (3-years) average, aggregate wheat output in 2002 could increase by 5 percent to about 56 million tonnes.
Some early coarse grains crops are already in the ground in southern parts, but the bulk of the maize planting in the Corn Belt states takes place from late April. Early indications in the USDA Prospective Planting Report point to a 4 percent increase in maize plantings throughout most of the Corn Belt after reductions last year due to adverse wet weather. By contrast, a sharp 12 percent decrease is forecast for sorghum. The rice area in 2002 is expected to decrease marginally, by less than 1 percent.