Early prospects for winter cereals, mainly wheat and barley, have improved with late winter and early spring precipitation. However, the river flow levels, which is the main source of irrigation, are still below average and ground water levels have reportedly not been sufficiently replenished due to three years of consecutive drought. Some 3.8 million tonnes are tentatively forecast for 2002, nearly 150 000 tonnes higher than the drought reduced harvest in 2001. Prospects for this year’s cereal harvest could improve with further precipitation during spring and summer and more importantly increased river flow levels in the two main rivers, Amu and Syr. The worst affected areas for the past two years have been Karakalpakstan and Khorzam autonomous regions, where a large number of people required emergency food assistance.

Cereal import requirement for 2001/02 marketing year is estimated at about 1 million tonnes. Food aid requirement is estimated at about 162 000 tonnes, including 60 000 tonnes of wheat, 92 000 tonnes of rice and 10 000 tonnes of maize.