å FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No.2 - May 2002

FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No.2 - May 2002 p. 1

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BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

1998/1999 1999/2000 2000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003
forecast 		Change 2002/03
over 2001/2002
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/ (. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ) (percentage)
Wheat 598 591 583 581 603 3.7
Coarse grains 915 888 877 906 910 0.4
Rice, milled 388 409 400 397 393 -1.0
          (paddy) (581) (611) (599) (593) (587) -1.0
All cereals (incl. milled rice) 1 901 1 888 1 860 1 884 1 905 1.1
Developing countries 1 043 1 038 1 004 1 011 1 008 -0.2
Developed countries 857 849 857 873 897 2.7
WORLD IMPORTS 2/            
Wheat 100 110 101 106 105 -0.9
Coarse grains 96 106 109 106 107 0.7
Rice (milled) 25 23 24 25 24 -3.9
All cereals 221 239 233 237 236 -0.5
Developing countries 162 174 171 171 178 3.6
Developed countries 59 65 63 66 58 -11.4
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/ 11.3 11.2 9.7 10.0        
WORLD UTILIZATION            
Wheat 591 593 597 611 618 1.3
Coarse grains 899 902 912 923 927 0.4
Rice (milled) 387 400 404 407 409 0.4
All cereals 1 878 1 895 1 913 1 941 1 954 0.7
Developing countries 1 132 1 153 1 163 1 172 1 181 0.8
Developed countries 746 742 750 768 772 0.5
Per Caput Food Use (. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )  
Developing countries 166 166 167 166 166 0.0
Developed countries 133 133 134 134 134 0.0
WORLD STOCKS 4/ (. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )  
Wheat 253 249 234 206 189 -8.4
Coarse grains 266 254 224 208 189 -9.2
Rice (milled) 157 168 164 152 136 -10.2
All cereals 677 672 623 566 515 -9.2
Developing countries 506 510 461 408 352 -13.8
Developed countries 171 161 162 159 163 2.7
EXPORT PRICES 5/ (. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . US$/tonne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )  
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/ 315 253 207 178 197 6/ 8.2 7/
Wheat (U.S. No.2 HRW) 120 112 128 1278/   -0.6 7/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow) 95 91 86 908/   3.8 7/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 5/            
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt 9.3 13.7 15.0 15.08/   0.0 7/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 9/ (. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )  
Roots & tubers production 1/ 414 424 435 424 426 0.5
Cereal production (milled rice) 1/ 811 814 774 774 776 0.2
Per caput production (kg.) 10/ 221 218 205 202 200 -1.0
Cereal imports 2/ 73.6 75.4 72.8 74.7 76.7 2.6
of which: Food aid 8.4 7.6 8.3 8.5    
Proportion of cereal import (. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )  
covered by food aid 11.4 10.0 11.4 11.4    

Source: FAO Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown. 2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown. 3/ July/June shipments. 4/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years. 5/ July/June. 6/ Average of quotations for January-April 2002. 7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown.   8/ Average of quotations for July2001-April 2002. 9/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. US$ 1 445 in 1999). 10/Including milled rice.

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