FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops and Shortages 06/02 - CHINA (4 June)
The output from the 2002 winter wheat crop, now being harvested, is estimated at 81.7 million tonnes, some 7 percent lower than in 2001, reflecting a reduction in the area planted as a result of unfavourable weather at planting time and more attractive alternative crops such as rapeseed, vegetables, fruits and cotton. The outturn from the spring wheat crop recently planted and due for harvest from August is forecast at 6.1 million tonnes slightly below production in 2001. Wheat production in 2002 would then total 87.8 million tons, about 6 million tonnes less than last year and the lowest level since 1989.
The sowing of most of the 2002 coarse grain crops, mainly maize, is virtually completed. Given normal weather for the remainder of the season, production of coarse grains is forecast to increase to 131 million tonnes, some 4 percent more than last year. Maize output is forecast at 120 million tonnes, an increase of about 6 million tonnes compared to 2001.
Harvesting of the early rice crop has started. This is the smallest of the country's three rice crops, accounting for some 19 percent of total output. Production is estimated at some 33 million tonnes, 4 percent less than last year due to a slight reduction in the area planted. Output of the main rice crop, now being planted, is forecast at 104 million tonnes, an increase of 2 percent compared with 2001. Total 2002 paddy production is put at 179.5 million tonnes (123 million tonnes milled), similar to 2001 and more than 8 percent below the average of the previous five years. This total includes a tentative forecast of some 39 million tons from the late rice crop to be harvested from November.
The estimated cereal output of 342 million tonnes (including rice in milled terms) in 2002 is virtually the same as last year’s reduced crop and almost 8 percent below the 1997-2001 average. The shortfall in production is expected to be met by drawdown of stocks and increased imports.