Harvesting of the 2002 second season foodcrops is about to start. Prospects are favourable reflecting adequate rains since planting time. The output of the 2002 first season crops, mainly of non-cereal foodcrops, was good. Food prices that declined at harvest time in December/January remain stable.
Food assistance continues to be required for some 432 000 internally displaced people as a result of insecurity in parts. Intensified fighting between Government forces and rebels in the past month has resulted in fresh waves of population displacement, particularly in Bujumbura Rural province.
Planting of the 2002 cereal and pulse crops is about to start. The main rains are expected to start from late June, however, spring (short) rains in March and April in parts helped early land preparation and regeneration of pasture. The Ministry of Agriculture forecasts area to be cultivated in 2002 at about 550 000 hectares and has made an appeal for assistance with inputs, including seeds and fertilizers.
The final estimate of the 2001 cereal crop is now put at about 220 000 tonnes. This is more than twice the harvest of the previous year and about average. The overall food supply situation, however, remains tight reflecting the displacement of large numbers of people by the war with Ethiopia and the lingering effects of earlier drought. As of June 2002, some 300 000 persons in the Sahel Regions, 60 000 IDPs in camps, 180 000 resettled IDPs in the Temporary Security Zone and about 44 000 repatriated refugees continue to rely on food assistance. In addition between 60 000 to 80 000 refugees are expected to be repatriated in the remaining months of 2002 and a further 62 000 in 2003.
The slow response to the 2002 UN Consolidated Appeal (CAP) remains a major concern to both the Government and humanitarian agencies. In May 2002, only 23.5 percent of the appeal has received funding.
Prospects for the 2002 secondary “belg” grain crops have improved considerably following adequate rains, except in South Tigray where rainfall was poor. The belg crop accounts for some 10 percent of total grain production but in some areas it provides most of the annual grain production. The 2001 main “meher” season bumper grain harvest has resulted in sharply falling grain prices in most markets, negatively impacting on farmers’ income and is expected to also negatively affect this year’s main season production.
Good rains in April and early May were adequate for the regeneration of pasture and replenishment of water supplies in the low land areas of the south and south-east.
The overall good harvest masks the existence of food insecure communities in most parts of the country due to localized drought, population displacement and limited purchasing power. Emergency food requirements in 2002 are projected at about 560 000 tonnes targeting some 5.2 million people. An Emergency Operation was jointly approved in May 2002 by FAO and WFP for food assistance to 2.1 million small scale farmers and drought-affected pastoralists, worth US$ 51.1 million for a period of 12 months (1 April 2002 to 31 March 2003).
Heavy rains, floods and landslides in April and May 2002, resulted in the death of more than 40 people and left tens of thousands homeless. Large cropped areas were also destroyed. The worst affected areas include the low-lying areas near Lake Victoria in western Kenya, where rivers burst their banks, submerging fields and washing away roads, and Tana River District in the east.
Prospects for the 2002 main “long rains” season crops are mixed. Normal to above-normal rains in parts have greatly improved crop conditions while in some key maize growing areas in the Rift Valley Province poor rains have dampened prospects. In addition, some key producers are expected to shift out of maize due to the sharp decline in prices.
Unusually heavy rains in most pastoralist areas have improved overall food supply prospects. However, food assistance is still required in many areas, particularly in Turkana, Mandera and parts of Marsabit Districts, where the effects of the 1999/00 drought remain. An Emergency Operation was jointly approved in April 2002 by FAO and WFP for food assistance to 1.26 million drought-affected people, worth US$ 36.26 million for a period of 6-1/2 months (15 April to 31 October).
Harvesting of the 2002 second-season foodcrops is about to start. Abundant rains in January and February provided adequate soil moisture for sowing operations, while normal precipitation in March allowed good establishment of the sorghum and bean crops. The outlook is favourable. The output of the 2002 first season foodcrops was also good at 3.7 million tonnes, 28 percent higher than last year’s first season.
The overall food supply situation remains satisfactory. Prices of the main food staples have declined significantly.
Good rains received between mid-April/early-May have boosted prospects for the main “gu” cereal crops which accounts for some 75-80 percent of the annual production in normal years. The highest rainfall was recorded in Middle and Lower Juba, Gedo and Bay regions. However more rains are necessary to achieve good yields.
The output of the recently harvested secondary “Deyr” season cereal crop is forecast at about 140 000 tonnes, which is about 47 percent above the previous year’s harvest. The total cereal production in 2001/02 is therefore estimated at about 255 000 tonnes, which is close to the 1993-2000 average.
However, the food supply situation is highly precarious particularly in Gedo, East Sanag, Sool and parts of Bari. Recent escalation of conflict is expected to exacerbate the already precarious food situation and may disrupt agricultural activities. Large numbers of people are estimated to be facing severe food difficulties, mainly due to past poor harvests, long-term effects of insecurity and reduced foreign exchange earnings due to the continuing ban on livestock imports from eastern Africa by countries along the Arabian Peninsula.
Harvesting of the 2002 wheat crop is complete and output is expected to be similar to last year’s crop of about 300 000 tonnes. The 2001/02 total cereal production, estimated at 4.75 million tonnes, is about 36 percent above last year’s crop and about 13 percent above the average of the last five years.
Despite the overall good harvest, the recent escalation of conflict in southern Sudan, particularly in Bahr-el-Ghazal, Eastern Equatoria and Western Upper Nile, is set to exacerbate an already poor food security situation due to continuing civil strife and adverse weather. Large numbers of people have been displaced and hundreds of thousands cut off from humanitarian access. Already an estimated 3 million IDPs, drought-affected and vulnerable people in different parts of the country depend on food assistance. In addition, the current situation coincides with the planting season for cereal crops and is expected to adversely impact on food production.
An Emergency Operation was jointly approved in April 2002 by FAO and WFP for food assistance for 2.9 million people, worth US$132.8 million for a period of 12 months (1 April 2002 to 31 March 2003).
Heavy rainfall and extensive flooding in April and May in Rufiji Basin and parts of southern highlands caused loss of life and localized damage to crops and property. However, generally normal to above-normal rains in April and May benefited crops of the main “long rains” season in unimodal central and southern areas. Harvesting has just started boosting food availability. By contrast, in the bi-modal rainfall areas of the north and northeast, poor rains since April have negatively affected the “Masika” season crops. The outlook for the harvest from August is generally unfavourable.
The overall food supply situation remains satisfactory with ongoing harvests in the central and southern regions. Prices of maize have remained stable or slightly declined in most markets since April.
Prospects for the 2002 main season cereal crops are generally favourable. Normal to above-normal rains were experienced from March in many parts of the country, notwithstanding reports of some pockets of dry conditions. However, heavy rainfall in western Uganda has caused land slides and displacement of many households.
Livestock in much of the country have adequate access to drinking water and pasture. However, pasture conditions in the north-eastern Karamoja region (Kotido, Moroto and Nakapiripirit Districts) have deteriorated due to severe moisture stress.
The overall food supply situation is seasonably satisfactory. However, some 700 000 refugees and displaced persons remain dependent on food assistance.