FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops and Shortages 06/02 - EC (4 June)
Output of wheat in 2002 is forecast to increase sharply after a significant expansion in the winter wheat area, mostly at the expense of coarse grains. Some land is also reported to have been shifted to wheat from non-cereal crops and set-aside. Furthermore, generally mild winter conditions have favoured crop development during the winter and spring throughout most of the Community and yield prospects are good. Harvesting has already begun in the most southern parts such as the south of Spain and Italy. Production is expected to increase the most in France and the United Kingdom, but significant increases are also reported for Italy and Spain. Output in Germany is forecast to remain close to last year’s level. The Community’s aggregate wheat crop is forecast at just under 106 million tonnes compared to 91.7 million tonnes last year. The outlook for the coarse grain crops is less certain. Although the overall area sown is expected to decline, largely reflecting the shift of winter barley land to wheat, this year’s favourable conditions could lead to better yields. FAO currently forecasts the Community’s aggregate coarse grains output at 106.7 million tonnes, which is 2 million tonnes below last year’s level but this forecast could be revised significantly in the coming months as crops get closer to maturity. Regarding rice, plantings are tentatively estimated to be up in Spain, supported by good supplies of water for irrigation this year. Production could also rise in Greece, which was afflicted last year by drought, and in Italy, in response to improved producer returns in 2001. Aggregate output for the community is currently forecast at 2.6 million tonnes, up 2.9 percent from 2001.