Output of wheat in 2002 is forecast to increase sharply after a significant expansion in the winter wheat area, mostly at the expense of coarse grains. Some land is also reported to have been shifted to wheat from non-cereal crops and set-aside. Furthermore, generally mild winter conditions have favoured crop development during the winter and spring throughout most of the Community and yield prospects are good. Harvesting has already begun in the most southern parts such as the south of Spain and Italy. Production is expected to increase the most in France and the United Kingdom, but significant increases are also reported for Italy and Spain. Output in Germany is forecast to remain close to last year’s level. The Community’s aggregate wheat crop is forecast at just under 106 million tonnes compared to 91.7 million tonnes last year. The outlook for the coarse grain crops is less certain. Although the overall area sown is expected to decline, largely reflecting the shift of winter barley land to wheat, this year’s favourable conditions could lead to better yields. FAO currently forecasts the Community’s aggregate coarse grains output at 106.7 million tonnes, which is 2 million tonnes below last year’s level but this forecast could be revised significantly in the coming months as crops get closer to maturity. Regarding rice, plantings are tentatively estimated to be up in Spain, supported by good supplies of water for irrigation this year. Production could also rise in Greece, which was afflicted last year by drought, and in Italy, in response to improved producer returns in 2001. Aggregate output for the community is currently forecast at 2.6 million tonnes, up 2.9 percent from 2001.
Generally satisfactory weather conditions are reported for the season. Output of wheat, the main cereal crop, is expected to remain around the average of the past few years at about 350 000 tonnes.
Latest information point to 5.2 million tonnes of grain harvest in 2002, including 0.8 million tonnes of wheat, 1.7 million tonnes of barley and 1.6 million tonnes of rye. The estimated grain output in 2002 is similar to 2001 harvest. Cereal import requirements in 2002/03 marketing year is estimated at 857 000 tonnes, which is about 120 000 tonnes higher than the import estimates of the marketing year coming to a close.
Latest reports point to a cereal harvest of more than 1.1 million tonnes in 2002, nearly 100 000 tonnes higher than the flood and hail affected harvest in 2001. The forecast cereal harvest is subject to weather conditions, in particular seasonal floods and hail, which normally occur during late spring and early summer. Domestic cereal utilisation is estimated at 1.3 million tonnes. Import requirement in the ensuing marketing year is estimated at 230 000 tonnes, including 80 000 tonnes of food aid.
Latest indications point to a significant increase in cereal output this year as a result of increased plantings, an increase in the use of fertilizer and generally favourable weather conditions for the season. Official reports indicate that winter wheat plantings increased by about 100 000 hectares last autumn to 1.15 million hectares. Output is now forecast to exceed 4 million tonnes and could reach as much as 4.5 million tonnes according to some opinions. The area sown to maize this spring is reported to have declined for the second year in succession as farmers have been put off the crop by drought losses in the past two years. Thus, even if yields return to normal levels maize output could remain close to the reduced level of the past two years.
Early reports indicate that the cereal harvest in 2002 estimated at 3.1 million tonnes will be similar to the harvest in 2001. Cereal harvest estimates this year include 912 000 tonnes of wheat, 1.97 million tonnes of maize and 165 000 tonnes of barley. Cereal exports during the ensuing marketing year is estimated at about 250 000 tonnes, including 150 000 tonnes of maize and 100 000 tonnes of wheat.
Generally favourable weather conditions and average plantings point to an average wheat crop in 2002 of about 4 million tonnes, about 500 000 tonnes less than last year’s output. This assumes a return to average yields after above-average levels in the previous year. Also for barley, the main coarse grain, a return to average yields could lead to a marginal decline in output to about 1.9 million tonnes.
Latest reports point to a cereal harvest of 566 000 tonnes in 2002, which is the same as the harvest of the preceding year. Ample soil moisture and favourable weather conditions have contributed to maintaining the improved harvest of the past two years. Domestic cereal consumption requirement in the country is estimated at about 0.8 million tonnes per year. Import requirement for the current marketing year is estimated at 292 000 tonnes, including 133 000 tonnes of wheat, 68 000 tonnes of maize and 35 000 tonnes of barley.
FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA (17 June)
Latest indications suggest that cereal yields will be somewhat constrained again this year due to adversely dry conditions. Wheat is the major cereal grown and output is likely to improve from last year when serious drought hit the country, but will likely remain below potential for the area sown at between 250 000 to 300 000 tonnes. The maize crop has averaged about 150 000 tonnes over the past five years and is likely to remain close to this level again this year.
Widespread heavy rains in the first half of June were very beneficial for the spring wheat and maize crops, although too late to benefit the winter wheat, which is due to be harvested from the end of June. Previously, a prolonged period of dry weather had given giving rise to concern for the yields of the spring crops, which had been growing under predominantly dry conditions since planting. Wheat output is forecast at between 4 million to 4.5 million tonnes. This is less than last year’s good crop but about the average of the past five years. In view of the recent good rains, the prospect of average maize yields is more likely now and output is forecast at about 6.5 million tonnes.
Early reports indicate a cereal harvest of 890 000 tonnes from an area of 417 000 hectares in 2002, which is respectively similar to 2001. The forecast cereal output this year is seen to include 390 000 tonnes of wheat, 260 000 tonnes of barley and 120 000 tonnes of rye.
Lithuania is set to harvest nearly 2.6 million tonnes of cereals this year, which is some 110 000 tonnes higher than the 2001 harvest. This year’s harvest include 0.9 million tonnes of wheat, 1 million tonnes of barley and 450 000 tonnes of rye. Domestic cereal utilisation is estimated at about 2.4 million tonnes.
Moldova is set to harvest 2.7 million tonnes of cereals in 2002, which is similar to 2001 but nearly 750 000 tonnes higher than the average harvest of the previous six years. Cereal harvest includes about 1.4 million tonnes of wheat and about 1.3 million tonnes of coarse grains. Lack of sufficient farm inputs including machinery, fertilizers and access to credit are thought to be the main factors inhibiting increases in cereal output.
Prospects for the 2002 cereal crops are satisfactory. Although winter crop planting was hampered somewhat by adverse weather last autumn, a mild winter and good spring weather have been beneficial for crop development. According to official reports, about 1.9 million hectares of wheat were sown last autumn, 3 percent less than the year before. Although the outcome of the spring planting is still unknown, the overall wheat area is currently expected to remain similar to the previous year’s level, at about 2.6 million hectares. Some reduction is also expected in yields this year, largely because use of fertilizer, herbicides and pesticides is expected to be curtailed in response to lower returns for wheat last season. Based on the above, the total output of wheat in 2002 is expected to fall to between 8.5 to 9 million tonnes, from almost 9.3 million tonnes in the previous year.
The outlook for this year’s cereal harvest has deteriorated following excessively dry conditions over the past two months. Drought conditions are affecting important producing areas in the west, south and east of the country. The winter wheat crop was already expected to be lower this year after reduced plantings last autumn, but latest forecasts have been revised downward further reflecting a deterioration of yield prospects from earlier expectations and the likelihood that crops in some parts have been completely destroyed. The official forecast for the 2002 wheat crop now stands at 4.9 million tonnes, compared to 7.8 tonnes last year. Prospects for coarse grain crops are uncertain. The maize area is expected to remain similar to last year, but yields could be affected by dry conditions.
Despite an increase of 1.6 million hectares in area planted to cereals, official estimates indicate a reduction in the cereal harvest by nearly 12 million tonnes in 2002 compared with the bumper harvest in 2001. The wheat harvest this year is seen to total 40.5 million tonnes compared with about 47 million tonnes in 2001, while the barley harvest is expected to decline by 3.5 million tonnes in 2002 compared with last year. In view of high stocks from last year’s bumper crop, cereal exports in 2002/03 marketing year are likely to remain high.
Civil strife and military operation in Chechnya continue to disrupt life and agricultural activities. WFP and some international NGOs continue to provide supplementary food and non-food assistance to internally displaced populations. WFP intends to provide supplementary food assistance to some 310 000 people in Ingushetia and Chechnya. The current emergency programme, which began last January, is expected to continue until the end of October this year, by then some 70 000 tonnes of food would have been distributed to 310 000 internally displaced and vulnerable persons.
Weather conditions have been generally favourable for the cereal crops this year. The season is reported to be somewhat ahead of normal because of mild winter conditions. Aggregate cereal output is forecast to remain similar to the previous year’s level and the average at about 3.1 million tonnes. Of the total, wheat is expected to account for about 1.6 million tonnes.
Normal cereal production is expected at around 500 000 tonnes reflecting generally satisfactory weather conditions. Of the total, wheat is expected to account for about 130 000 tonnes and maize 300 000 tonnes.
Official estimates point to a reduced cereal harvest of 34.4 million tonnes in 2002, which is some 3 million tonnes lower than the harvest in 2001. The estimated reduced harvest, despite an increase of about 1.3 million hectares in area, is due to extensive frost in winter and insufficient topsoil moisture to support spring crop germination. The cereal harvest this year includes some 19 million tonnes of wheat, 8.8 million tonnes of barley and 3.2 million tonnes of maize, compared with 21.3 million tonnes of wheat, 10.4 million tonnes of barley and 2.5 million tonnes of maize in 2001.
Cereal exports in 2002/03 marketing year is estimated at over 6 million tonnes compared with more than 8 million tonnes in marketing year coming to a close. This year’s exports have been boosted by lower tariffs on Ukrainian cereals in the EU.
YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO) * (29 May)
Yugoslavia is set to produce some 8.3 million tonnes of cereals in 2002, which is some 500 000 tonnes lower than the excellent harvest of the preceding year. Cereal harvest estimates this year include 2.4 million tonnes of wheat, 5.5 million tonnes of maize and 303 000 tonnes of barley. Cereal exports in 2002/03 marketing year are estimated at 500 000 tonnes, including 200 000 tonnes of wheat and 300 000 tonnes of maize.
WFP has approved a Protected Relief and Recovery operation which will extend its food assistance programme from 1 July. This assistance will be gradually phased out by December 2003. Under a regional emergency operation WFP currently assists some 320 000 beneficiaries, of which 160 000 are refugees/IDPs and 160 000 social cases. Assistance to IDPs and social cases will be phased out by mid-2002 when the emergency operation ends. From 1 July, WFP assistance will focus exclusively on 174 000 refugees of which 170 000 in Serbia and 4 000 in Montenegro. ICRC will ensure continued food assistance to IDPs through December 2003.