FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops and Shortages 06/02 - UNITED STATES (14 June)
Winter wheat production is set to fall to the lowest level since 1978 in anticipation of one of the smallest harvested areas ever recorded and expectations for yields well below the average of the past five years. Based on conditions in early June, the latest official forecast for the winter wheat output is 33.7 million tonnes, 9 percent below last year’s crop. Regarding spring wheat, planting was virtually complete by the end of May and, if early indications in the USDA's Prospective Plantings Report have materialized, the area will be down by about 3 percent from 2001 to 7.3 million hectares. Based on these latest indications, the country’s aggregate wheat output is set to fall further this year, and could drop below 50 million tonnes for the first time since 1993. With regard to coarse grains, planting of the main crops was well advanced by the end of May, although, for maize and sorghum, slightly behind the average pace of the past five years. According to the USDA's Prospective Plantings Report, a 4 percent increase in maize area is expected after reductions last year due to adverse wet weather, while, by contrast, a sharp 12 percent decrease is forecast for sorghum. Based on the indicated areas planted, and assuming normal weather conditions prevail for the remainder of the season, aggregate 2002 coarse grains output in the United States is forecast at about 267 million tonnes, which would be about 2 percent up on the previous year. Of the total, maize would account for 245 million tonnes. The area sown to rice in 2002 is likely to remain close to that of last year. However, assuming a return to normal conditions after the excellent season in 2001, production will probably decline somewhat this year.