Torrential rainfall in central, western and southern provinces in June caused floods and landslides. Though not as serious as in 1998, the disaster affected millions of people in 18 provinces, 800 deaths were reported, an estimated 290 000 head of large stock were lost and extensive damage caused to infrastructure, while large crop areas were flooded. By contrast, in early August drought severely affected crops in northern areas while devastating forest fires were reported in the northeastern provinces. In mid-August, excessive rainfall and landslides in Hunan and Yunnan provinces caused damage to property and infrastructure and killed 108 and 57 people in the two provinces, respectively.
The outcome of the spring wheat harvested in July-August is estimated at 6.3 million tonnes, marginally higher than in 2001, reflecting improved late season weather conditions in the main spring wheat growing regions of the northeast and northwest. The winter wheat harvested in May-June is estimated at 81.7 million tonnes, some 7 percent below that of 2001. The total national production of 88.0 million tonnes marks the third consecutive decline in annual wheat production and the lowest since 1989. The estimated shortfall in production for the 2002/03 marketing year (July/June) is expected to be covered mainly by drawdown of stocks, while imports could increase.
Harvesting of maize in southern areas was completed in August, while it is still ongoing in northern provinces. The latest estimate points to an output of 125.7 million tonnes of maize, 10 percent up on 114.3 million tonnes harvested in 2001. As a result, maize exports during the 2002/03 marketing year (October/September) are estimated at 9.3 million tonnes, 1.7 million tonnes higher than in the previous marketing year.
The outcome of the 2002 early rice crop harvested in July is estimated at 31.2 million tonnes of paddy. This is 8 percent below last year, mainly reflecting a decline in the area planted, but also dry weather in the growing areas of the south. The main rice crop is presently being harvested, while harvesting of the late crop is due in October-November. The aggregate paddy production from the three crops is provisionally forecast at 178.8 million tonnes (122.6 million tonnes of milled rice), marginally below last year. Imports of rice in 2002/03 (July/June) are forecast at 0.3 million tonnes, slightly above those of last year, mainly due to larger imports of higher quality rice, while exports are expected to decline.