Three years of harsh winters and dry summers continue to affect disaster-hit herders and farmers. Millions of animals are dead and production of wheat, virtually the only cereal grown, has declined from 700 000 tonnes in the early 1990s to less than 200 000 tonnes over the past five seasons. The problems are exacerbated by a painful transition from socialist to market economy and a high level of bureaucracy and corruption. The traditional lifestyle is under serious threat, with the rural population moving to urban centres in large numbers in search of jobs.
In 2002, the summer rains from May to August (inclusive) were less than 50 percent of average and the lowest for 5 years, affecting livestock rearing and cereal production alike. In the northern wheat growing areas, rainfall was only between 42 percent and 51 percent of normal. Thus, the wheat crop due for harvest this month is expected to be even lower than the poor outturn of 190 000 tons produced in 2001. To cover domestic consumption requirements for the 2002/03 marketing year (October/September) the country will need to import an estimated 200 000 tonnes of wheat, while imports of some 15 000 tonnes of rice will also be required. Given that the country has a serious balance of payment problem, commercial imports will only cover part of this requirement and allocation of food aid will be necessary to meet the deficit.