A joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission was fielded to Tajikistan in late June to assess the 2001/02 cereal output and possible food aid requirement for 2002/03 marketing year. The Mission found that though there were no major disasters this year, cereal harvest is still considered far below planned output. Cereal production this year is estimated at 444 000 tonnes, an increase of 30 percent over the drought reduced harvest of 2001, which can only cover some 40 percent of the total consumption requirements. Good rainfall was the main contributor to this year’s improved production, though heavy rains did have some adverse effects in some areas. Area under cereals was even lower than the significantly reduced area of last year due to lack of inputs and the perceived continuation of drought.
Aggregate import requirement for 2002/03 marketing year is estimated at 656 000 tonnes of wheat equivalent, while national capacity to import is estimated at 450 000 tonnes. Existing food aid programmes and pledges amount to 93 414 tonnes, which leaves a deficit of 112 000 tonnes. Some 71 657 tonnes of emergency and 40 343 tonnes of programme food aid will be necessary to meet the consumption needs of the country. WFP estimates that some 1.5 million people will require food assistance during the ensuing year.