The output from the 2002 cereal harvest is estimated to be below normal for the third consecutive year. Aggregate production of cereals, estimated at 0.51 million tonnes, is the lowest since 1995. Wheat output, estimated at 0.42 million tonnes, declined by more than 60 percent compared to last year. Barley production was down 61 percent, to 0.1 million tonnes, from the already below-average crop harvested in 2001. Rains in May benefited pastures but were too late to improve the state of the cereal crops previously stressed by prolonged dry weather.
Reflecting the sharp drop in production, wheat imports in 2002/03 (July/June) are forecast to increase substantially from the 1.4 million tonnes imported last year. Similarly, coarse grain imports (barley and maize) are expected to increase compared to 1.2 million tonnes imported in 2001/02.