The 2002 southwest monsoon has been erratic. While the first spell in June evolved normally in most areas, it did not progress towards northwestern states where a drought developed. Yet it brought excessive rainfall to the northeast, causing devastating floods affecting some 21 million people and causing close to 400 deaths. The worst hit states were Assam and Bihar. In early August the floodwaters slowly started to recede. Flooding also occurred in the western states of Maharashtra and Gujarat, where a death toll of 180 was reported, as well as in Uttaranchal in the northwest and Kerala in the south. Following a revival of the monsoon from mid-August, heavy rainfall in eastern and northeastern states brought further suffering due to floods.
While causing extensive local damage, the impact of the floods on national cereal production is expected to be less severe. By contrast, the drought in the northwest adversely affected Kharif crops, mainly coarse grains, but also oilseeds and pulses. The paddy crop was less affected because of irrigation support, but still a decline in paddy yields is expected. Steady rainfall in a number of the drought-stricken states from mid-August brought some relief, but reportedly was insufficient to save the crops fully. Tentatively the 2002 paddy production, including the Rabi rice crop harvested in April–May 2002, is forecast at 127.5 million tonnes (85.0 million tonnes milled), some 9.9 million tonnes below the previous year. The estimate of the winter wheat harvested in March-May 2002 has been revised to 71.5 million tonnes, down from 73.5 million tonnes reported earlier.
Despite the forecast of a lower cereal production, the national 2002/03 food supply situation remains satisfactory, reflecting large carry-overs. As of 1 July 2002, wheat stocks were estimated at 32.0 million tonnes and those of rice at 26.0 million tonnes, much above the level required for strategic reserve stocks. These stocks have been accumulated over the past years of good harvests, which have also allowed the country to take a position on the world market amongst the seven leading exporters of wheat with forecast exports in 2002/03 of 5.5 million tonnes, while it has become the second largest in rice with a forecast of 4.5 million tonnes of exports.