The winter cropping season has began under favourable weather conditions. Recent rainfall and snowfall in some areas are expected to assist land preparation. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missionvisited Afghanistan from 15 June to 13 July 2002 and forecast the 2002 total cereal production at about 3.59 million tonnes (milled basis), comprising 2.69 million tonnes of wheat, 345 000 tonnes of barley, 298 000 tonnes of maize and 260 000 tonnes of milled rice. At this level, cereal production is about 82 percent above last year’s drought affected crop but about 4 percent below the good crop of 1998. As a result, the cereal import requirement in the 2002/03 (July/June) marketing year is estimated at 1.38 million tonnes, about 38 percent below the previous two years’ volume. Commercial imports are estimated at 911 000 tonnes, similar to the average level of the previous three years. Emergency food aid in pipeline and pledges amounts to 219 000 tonnes, leaving an uncovered gap of about 249 000 tonnes.
However, despite the recovery in this year’s agricultural production millions of Afghans, particularly pastoral Kuchis, have little access to food due to serious erosion of their purchasing power and/or loss of productive assets. Effects of successive years of drought, deteriorating irrigation and other infrastructure, inability of farmers to access necessary agricultural inputs, lack of employment within and outside agriculture, and serious rural indebtedness render timely and effective intervention all the more essential. Sustained investment in the agricultural sector, particularly the rehabilitation, upgrading and maintenance of the irrigation infrastructure is essential for speedy recovery of the Afghan economy.