Following the dry spell of July which severely stressed crops and caused crop failure in many areas, precipitation resumed in early August and remained widespread and well distributed until mid-September. Some of the crops that suffered temporary wilting recovered. However, rainfall decreased significantly during the last dekad of September before resuming in October.
A joint FAO/CILSS/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country from 14 to 20 October estimated 2002 aggregate cereal production at some 900 000 tonnes, 7 percent less than last year’s average harvest and about 2 percent below the average for the previous five years. The important millet crop is expected to decrease (for the second consecutive year) by 10 percent to some 425 000 tonnes while the paddy crop is estimated at about 219 000 tonnes, similar to the average of the past five years but 10 percent lower than last year. Production of groundnut, the main cash crop, will be down by more than 35 percent to some 533 000 tonnes.
Millet prices have increased steeply over last marketing year, rising by 70 percent from October 2001 to September 2002. Although the total cereal import requirement, estimated at 1 056 440 tonnes, is anticipated to be covered by commercial rice and wheat imports, millet prices are likely to stay high, given that its production has decreased for the second consecutive year and that its supply will be limited in the whole western Sahel region during marketing year 2002/03. The impact on rural vulnerable households’ food security should be monitored closely.