The November USDA crop report put the 2002 aggregate wheat (winter and spring) output at 44 million tonnes, 17 percent down from the already reduced crop in 2001 and about 30 percent below the average of the past five years. The sharp reduction came as a result of a reduction in plantings (to the smallest area since 1970) and poor yields because of drought. As of 10 November, planting of the winter wheat crop for harvest in 2003 was reported to be 92 percent complete, about normal for the time of season. The percent of the crop already emerged (85 percent) on the same date, was also similar to last year’s level, while the condition of emerging crops is on the whole considerably better than at the same time last year. Early indications for the total winter wheat area this year point to a significant increase compared to 2001 after a downward slide in the past few years.
As the coarse grains harvest draws to a close in the main producing states, latest estimates point to a larger output this year than previously expected. The USDA's November forecast put aggregate coarse grain production at about 246 million tonnes, up from expectations earlier in the autumn, but still about 17 million tonnes down from last year’s crop. Of the total, maize is now expected to account for about 229 million tonnes, compared to 241 million tonnes in 2001. By 10 November, it was reported that, 86 percent of the maize crop had been harvested, slightly behind last year’s pace and the average for the time of year.